MIA vs TB prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.0 - MIA 2.7. TB is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.7 total runs.
TB
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIA
2.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBMIA
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.5% (2,114 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
135
TB
135
Projected
TB 3.0 — MIA 2.7
Actual
TB 5 — MIA 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
CH23%91 mph34% whiff
SI23%97 mph9% whiff
FF20%97 mph14% whiff
Nick Martinez R
TB
SI30%92 mph6% whiff
CH28%79 mph29% whiff
FC19%89 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
88°F12 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.49ERA
3.49FIP
9.52K/9
4.49BB/9
1.17WHIP
TB
3.86ERA
3.66FIP
8.12K/9
3.33BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-44.2% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-41.2% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+34.4% EV
-102
F5 UNDER 4.5
+28.7% EV
-130
NRFI NRFI
+16.9% EV
-122
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-10.1% EV
+158
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
1.2 runs
32.6% win
TB F5
1.6 runs
42.7% win
F5 Total
2.8
NRFI
68.3%
YRFI
31.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.56
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
74%
Over 1.5 HR
40%
No HR
26%
Liam Hicks MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB29.6%
ISO: 0.217 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.92x
Jake Fraley TB19.4%
ISO: 0.167 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sandy Alcantara
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA5 injured
Robby Snelling SP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Logan Driscoll CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE0.5% WR (n=263)
Home team TB projects UNDER 7.5 with elite 34.4% edge (67.9% model prob) — second-strongest total edge after PHI game. Nick Martinez (1.84 ERA, elite) vs Sandy Alcantara (4.21 ERA, good) creates pitcher mismatch favoring home. However, MIA road team (away dog) + weak offense vs TB's elite home bullpen (3.86 ERA) = low-scoring affair. Zone profile YELLOW (50.4% WR) on totals tempers enthusiasm, but F5 UNDER edge at 28.7% is monster.
Key Factors
- SP advantage TB: Martinez (1.84 ERA, dominant) vs Alcantara (4.21 ERA) — ~2.4 run swing to TB
- UNDER edge 34.4% (model 67.9% vs market 45% implied) — very strong despite zone concern
- F5 UNDER edge 28.7% (model 72.7%) — cleaner market (F5_total B+ at 55.2% WR)
- TB home bullpen elite: 3.86 ERA, K/9 8.12 — late-game leverage advantage
- MIA road team (-0.3 run swing) + weak offense vs elite TB defense = low-scoring setup
Risk Factors
- TOTAL market D grade (51.1% WR, -13.6 units) — despite high edges, totals underperforming
- 34.4% edge in YELLOW zone (50.4% WR) = conflicting signals; model overconfident?
- Indoor dome (Tropicana Field) — neutral park, limits weather volatility but also removes potential scoring swings
PITCHER MISMATCH HOMEELITE TOTAL UNDER EDGEYELLOW ZONE CONFLICTF5 UNDER PREFERENCENRFI EDGEINDOOR VENUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 55.4%
-10.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-10.1 pts
Total
7.5
+34.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →