MIA vs TB prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 4.0 - MIA 3.0. TB is favored with a 62.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
TB
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
MIA
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBMIA
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.8% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
135
TB
246
Projected
TB 4.0 — MIA 3.0
Actual
TB 6 — MIA 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eury Pérez R
MIA
FF51%98 mph20% whiff
SL15%88 mph38% whiff
ST14%83 mph33% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
FC36%90 mph22% whiff
FF28%96 mph22% whiff
SI20%96 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
88°F9 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.51ERA
3.50FIP
9.45K/9
4.55BB/9
1.18WHIP
TB
4.30ERA
3.69FIP
8.27K/9
3.36BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-48.2% EV
-164
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-22.7% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
-18.0% EV
+134
ML AWAY
-11.2% EV
+132
F5_ML HOME
+3.9% EV
-167
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-3.4% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
1.4 runs
27.1% win
TB F5
2.4 runs
54.1% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
60.9%
YRFI
39.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.75
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Jonathan Aranda TB30.0%
ISO: 0.237 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.216 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 0.92x
Liam Hicks MIA27.8%
ISO: 0.237 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Eury Pérez
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA5 injured
Robby Snelling SP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
TB8 injured
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 62.7%
+0.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+0.4 pts
Total
7.0
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →