MIA vs TOR prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 3.4 - MIA 3.4. TOR is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
TOR
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIA
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORMIA
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
135
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 3.4 — MIA 3.4
Actual
TOR 2 — MIA 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Janson Junk R
MIA
FF33%94 mph12% whiff
SL23%86 mph15% whiff
CH20%87 mph30% whiff
Trey Yesavage R
TOR
FF48%94 mph19% whiff
FS34%82 mph40% whiff
SL18%88 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
62°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.008 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.47ERA
3.51FIP
9.60K/9
4.56BB/9
1.19WHIP
TOR
3.35ERA
3.21FIP
10.25K/9
3.50BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.9% EV
-172
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-21.4% EV
+102
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-17.8% EV
+142
F5 UNDER 4.5
+12.8% EV
-147
F5_ML HOME
-12.1% EV
-167
ML HOME
-11.9% EV
-152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
1.6 runs
36.9% win
TOR F5
1.8 runs
42.1% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
64.4%
YRFI
35.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.3
Over 0.5 HR
72%
Over 1.5 HR
38%
No HR
28%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR20.0%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Janson Junk | Park: 1.01x
Liam Hicks MIA15.4%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Trey Yesavage | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Jesús Sánchez TOR11.9%
ISO: 0.076 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Janson Junk | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Janson Junk
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Trey Yesavage
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Connor Norby 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Kemp Alderman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Leo Jimenez 3B7-DAY IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Joe Mantiply RP15-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Dylan Cease SP15-DAY-IL
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Alejandro Kirk C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=285)
Model projects 6.78 total runs (UNDER 7.5, +10.6% edge, 61.1% model prob). Pitcher matchup heavily favors TOR home: Trey Yesavage (B pitcher, 1.16 ERA (!), 0.595 grade, 28.7% K-rate) is one of the best arms on slate vs Janson Junk (B- pitcher, 0.44 grade, 16.5% K-rate). Yesavage's 1.16 ERA is elite; Junk's weak K-rate and command (0.797 grade but pedestrian stuff 0.148) = huge mismatch favoring low-scoring game. Weather cool (61.7F, retractable roof, neutral 1.004x mult). Model projects 6.78 runs (vs market 7.5) = 0.72 run gap. UNDER lean justified by elite home pitcher.
Key Factors
- Elite pitcher at home: Yesavage (1.16 ERA, B pitcher, 28.7% K-rate) is TOP-5 arm on entire slate. Bayesian ERA 1.16 is pristine. Grade B (0.595 score) understates his value; command 0.569 + stuff 0.616 = balanced elite profile. Junk (B-, 0.44 grade, 16.5% K-rate, weak stuff 0.148) = major downgrade.
- Pitcher mismatch: 1.16 ERA vs 0.44 grade (Junk has no documented ERA but command is elite 0.797) suggests command-focused pitcher with weak stuff. Yesavage dominates this matchup.
- NRFI probability 64.4% (high) — suggests first-inning pitching dominance, supports under lean.
- Model 6.78 runs (vs market 7.5) = 0.72 run gap = modest but justified by elite pitcher performance data.
Risk Factors
- TOTALS DISABLED (grade F, 44.9% WR). Caution on ALL totals despite this edge backing (14.4% is strong). Calibration risk is real.
- Edge 14.4% on total is actually quite high; combined with elite pitcher (1.16 ERA) and weak visiting pitcher (Junk), this is one of strongest under cases on slate. But totals calibration is so poor, recommend cautious approach.
- TOR bullpen (3.35 ERA, quality 1.343) is solid; MIA bullpen (3.47 ERA, quality 1.297) comparable. No relief edge.
PITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 51.9%
-17.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-17.8 pts
Total
7.5
+10.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →