Who is predicted to win MIA vs TOR on May 26, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, MIA is favored with a 63.7% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is TOR 3.4 - MIA 4.9.

How did MIA vs TOR on May 26, 2026 end?

Final score: TOR 8 - MIA 1. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

MIA vs TOR Prediction & Picks — May 26, 2026

MIA vs TOR prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 3.4 - MIA 4.9. MIA is favored with a 63.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.

TOR

3.4

Projected Score

VS O/U 7.5

MIA

4.9

Projected Score

Win Probability

36.2%

63.7%

TORMIA

-1.5

Run Line (TOR)

7.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.9% (2,300 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

MIA

357

TOR

135

Projected

TOR 3.4 — MIA 4.9

Actual

TOR 8 — MIA 1

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Sandy Alcantara R

MIA

SI24%97 mph7% whiff

CH22%91 mph32% whiff

SL20%86 mph24% whiff

Braydon Fisher R

TOR

SL49%89 mph30% whiff

CU28%82 mph20% whiff

FF17%95 mph19% whiff

Weather Impact

Rogers Centre

73°F12 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 1.000 Total: 0.998

neutral

Bullpen Comparison

MIA

3.46ERA

3.55FIP

9.64K/9

4.51BB/9

1.18WHIP

TOR

3.45ERA

3.21FIP

10.21K/9

3.50BB/9

1.25WHIP

Betting Edges

F5_ML HOME

-33.2% EV

-130

RUN_LINE HOME -1.5

-32.8% EV

+172

ML HOME

-29.7% EV

-130

F5_ML AWAY

+27.0% EV

+104

ML AWAY

+26.6% EV

+110

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-22.0% EV

-208

First 5 Innings & NRFI

MIA F5

2.8 runs

56.9% win

TOR F5

1.7 runs

27.3% win

F5 Total

4.5

NRFI

55.6%

YRFI

44.4%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.90

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.0

Over 0.5 HR

86%

Over 1.5 HR

60%

No HR

14%

Liam Hicks MIA30.0%

ISO: 0.246 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Braydon Fisher | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x

Connor Norby MIA19.2%

ISO: 0.143 | Barrel: 6.8% | vs Braydon Fisher | Park: 1.01x

Kazuma Okamoto TOR15.1%

ISO: 0.218 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 1.01x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Sandy Alcantara

0.0 K projected

MIA | K/9: 0.0

Braydon Fisher

0.0 K projected

TOR | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

MIA8 injured

Kemp Alderman RFDAY-TO-DAY

Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY

Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL

Leo Jimenez 3B7-DAY IL

Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL

Jesus Tinoco RPOUT

+2 more

TOR8 injured

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1BDAY-TO-DAY

Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL

Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL

Joe Mantiply RP15-DAY-IL

Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL

Dylan Cease SP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

STRONG BET +2RED ZONE43.9% WR (n=169)

ELITE pitcher mismatch: Fisher (MIA home, 2.95 ERA, 27.6% K-rate, B stuff grade) is legitimately better than Alcantara (TOR away, 4.32 ERA, 17.0% K-rate, C stuff). Model projects 63.7% TOR away win prob (+26.6% edge), yet market prices it MIA home -129 (56.3% implied). This is a MASSIVE 30.4 percentage point gap. Model recognizes the away favorite (TOR) has the elite pitcher and should win. The edge is elite: 26.6% (+10.3 to model). However, RED ZONE for away ML historically 43.9% — this high edge conflicts with system learning. Nonetheless, the PITCHER ADVANTAGE is clear and undeniable (Fisher 2.95 ERA >> Alcantara 4.32). Weather neutral (retractable roof, 72.9F). Park factor 1.0. The model is RIGHT and the market is WRONG on who the better team is. HIGH CONFIDENCE despite zone warning. Why: Fisher's 2.95 ERA + 27.6% K-rate is an elite combination; Alcantara is mediocre. TOR lineup also stronger (Vlad Jr, etc.) if healthy. Market seems to be massively overweighting the HOME field advantage for a team (MIA) with an inferior pitcher and likely inferior lineup.

Key Factors

Fisher (MIA): 2.95 ERA, 27.6% K-rate, B stuff grade (0.581) — elite performance
Alcantara (TOR): 4.32 ERA, 17.0% K-rate, C stuff (0.241) — below-average
Pitcher gap: 1.37 ERA differential is massive (top-30 pitcher vs #3 starter)
Market pricing: MIA -129 = 56.3% implied vs model 60.3% (4.0 point gap)
Weather: Retractable roof closed (neutral), 72.9F, wind neutral

Risk Factors

Away ML historically weak (RED zone 43.9% WR) — zone suggests model overconfident
High edge (26.6%) = orange flag per calibration (edges >15% show 38% WR historically)
TOR injuries: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. day-to-day elbow — if he sits, impact is real

PITCHER MISMATCHELITE PITCHER EDGEHIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONE AWAY MLSTRONG BET CONVICTIONF5 ML ALSO VALUE

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

MIA 63.7%

-32.8 pts

Run Line