MIA vs TOR prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 3.8 - MIA 3.6. TOR is favored with a 53.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
TOR
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIA
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORMIA
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
TOR
246
Projected
TOR 3.8 — MIA 3.6
Actual
TOR 2 — MIA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eury Pérez R
MIA
FF48%98 mph19% whiff
ST15%83 mph32% whiff
SL15%88 mph38% whiff
Kevin Gausman R
TOR
FF52%94 mph15% whiff
FS39%84 mph36% whiff
SL8%84 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
68°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.038 Total: 1.021
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.43ERA
3.52FIP
9.59K/9
4.45BB/9
1.18WHIP
TOR
3.42ERA
3.19FIP
10.07K/9
3.47BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.3% EV
-169
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-13.3% EV
-106
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-11.7% EV
+140
ML HOME
-9.6% EV
-154
F5_ML AWAY
-8.2% EV
+122
ML AWAY
+4.0% EV
+130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
1.9 runs
34.1% win
TOR F5
2.4 runs
49.1% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
57.6%
YRFI
42.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
11%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.213 | Barrel: 10.6% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 1.01x
Liam Hicks MIA28.6%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Daulton Varsho TOR22.2%
ISO: 0.162 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Eury Pérez
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Kevin Gausman
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Kemp Alderman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Leo Jimenez 3B7-DAY IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Dylan Cease SP15-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP15-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Alejandro Kirk C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Game appears to have already been completed (Blue Jays won 2-1 in ESPN feed); if still live, TOR's superior SP (Gausman 3.49 ERA vs Pérez 5.30 ERA) and home field advantage (+1.038 HR mult) are priced correctly into -153 ML, leaving no actionable edge.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Gausman 3.49 ERA, 22.3% K-rate vs Pérez 5.30 ERA, 25.2% K-rate (paradoxical K-rate despite ERA gap indicates pitch quality issue with Pérez)
- Home field advantage: TOR at Rogers Centre (+1.038 HR mult, retractable roof). Neutral weather (temp 67.6°F, 6.1 mph tail wind).
- Bullpen parity: TOR 3.42 ERA (quality 1.316) vs MIA 3.43 ERA (quality 1.312) — near identical depth. Slight TOR edge in closer (2.14 vs 3.51 ERA).
- historical support profitability: Away ML in 0-5% edge bucket shows a supportive track record — RED FLAG for underdog bets with low edges.
- Market efficiency: -153 home ML implies 60.5% prob vs 54.8% model — market is overpricing TOR by ~5.7%. Not actionable with this gap.
Risk Factors
- Game likely complete: ESPN feed shows final score TOR 2-1 MIA. Avoid unless game is being replayed or reopened.
- Injury uncertainty: Pérez's hamstring status unresolved — could shift line if active vs. not active.
- Away ML historically weak: Historical WR 39.1% on away ML — structural disadvantage.
GAME LIKELY COMPLETEPITCHER INJURY RISKMARKET RESPECTEDNEUTRAL WEATHER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 53.9%
-11.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.7 pts
Total
7.5
+4.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.