MIA vs TOR prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 3.8 - MIA 3.6. TOR is favored with a 53.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
TOR
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIA
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORMIA
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.7% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
TOR
246
Projected
TOR 3.8 — MIA 3.6
Actual
TOR 2 — MIA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eury Pérez R
MIA
FF48%98 mph19% whiff
ST15%83 mph32% whiff
SL15%88 mph38% whiff
Kevin Gausman R
TOR
FF52%94 mph15% whiff
FS39%84 mph36% whiff
SL8%84 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
68°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.038 Total: 1.021
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.43ERA
3.52FIP
9.59K/9
4.45BB/9
1.18WHIP
TOR
3.42ERA
3.19FIP
10.07K/9
3.47BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.3% EV
-169
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-13.3% EV
-106
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-11.7% EV
+140
ML HOME
-9.6% EV
-154
F5_ML AWAY
-8.2% EV
+122
ML AWAY
+4.0% EV
+130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
1.9 runs
34.1% win
TOR F5
2.4 runs
49.1% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
57.6%
YRFI
42.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
11%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.213 | Barrel: 10.6% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 1.01x
Liam Hicks MIA28.6%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Daulton Varsho TOR22.2%
ISO: 0.162 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Eury Pérez
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Kevin Gausman
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Kemp Alderman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Leo Jimenez 3B7-DAY IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Dylan Cease SP15-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP15-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Alejandro Kirk C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE34.8% WR (n=8)
Game appears to have already been completed (Blue Jays won 2-1 in ESPN feed); if still live, TOR's superior SP (Gausman 3.49 ERA vs Pérez 5.30 ERA) and home field advantage (+1.038 HR mult) are priced correctly into -153 ML, leaving no actionable edge.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Gausman 3.49 ERA, 22.3% K-rate vs Pérez 5.30 ERA, 25.2% K-rate (paradoxical K-rate despite ERA gap indicates pitch quality issue with Pérez)
- Home field advantage: TOR at Rogers Centre (+1.038 HR mult, retractable roof). Neutral weather (temp 67.6°F, 6.1 mph tail wind).
- Bullpen parity: TOR 3.42 ERA (quality 1.316) vs MIA 3.43 ERA (quality 1.312) — near identical depth. Slight TOR edge in closer (2.14 vs 3.51 ERA).
- Zone profitability: Away ML in 0-5% edge bucket shows 34.8% WR (n=8, small sample) — RED FLAG for underdog bets with low edges.
- Market efficiency: -153 home ML implies 60.5% prob vs 54.8% model — market is overpricing TOR by ~5.7%. Not actionable with this gap.
Risk Factors
- Game likely complete: ESPN feed shows final score TOR 2-1 MIA. Avoid unless game is being replayed or reopened.
- Injury uncertainty: Pérez's hamstring status unresolved — could shift line if active vs. not active.
- Away ML red zone: Historical WR 39.1% on away ML — structural disadvantage.
GAME LIKELY COMPLETEPITCHER INJURY RISKRED ZONE AWAY MLMARKET RESPECTEDNEUTRAL WEATHER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 53.9%
-11.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.7 pts
Total
7.5
+4.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →