MIL vs CHC prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 4.6 - MIL 4.3. CHC is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
CHC
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
MIL
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCMIL
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,157 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
246
CHC
357
Projected
CHC 4.6 — MIL 4.3
Actual
CHC 3 — MIL 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Sproat R
MIL
FC27%94 mph24% whiff
SI27%96 mph12% whiff
CU14%83 mph32% whiff
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
FF41%92 mph17% whiff
FS35%83 mph41% whiff
ST15%82 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
76°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.008
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.49ERA
3.18FIP
9.73K/9
4.12BB/9
1.32WHIP
CHC
3.55ERA
4.72FIP
8.60K/9
3.91BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.5% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 10.5
-26.4% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
+15.0% EV
-122
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-14.4% EV
+118
F5_ML HOME
-13.6% EV
-175
F5 UNDER 5.5
+12.5% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.4 runs
39.6% win
CHC F5
2.6 runs
44.9% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
56.4%
YRFI
43.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
9%
Ian Happ CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.235 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Brandon Sproat | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Bauers MIL27.8%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.03x
Seiya Suzuki CHC25.5%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Brandon Sproat | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Sproat
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Shota Imanaga
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Akil Baddoo LF60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Porter Hodge RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE49.8% WR (n=270)
Shota Imanaga (2.51 ERA, B grade, 27.4 K%) is a legitimate ace, vs Brandon Sproat (6.21 ERA, B- grade, 24.3 K%). Pitcher mismatch favors MIL. Model 54.1% home (CHC) win prob, market implies 61.7% (heavily pricing MIL away favorite). Model AWAY ML 5.8% edge but AWAY is RED ZONE (45.1% WR). However, UNDER 10.5 shows 15% edge (63.2% prob), and F5 UNDER 5.5 shows 12.5% edge (58.3% prob). MIL bullpen 3.49 ERA (excellent), CHC bullpen 3.55 ERA (good). Both are run suppressors. Total edge looks legitimate here, not overconfident. Recommend LEAN on UNDER 10.5 (if enabled), or F5 UNDER 5.5 (enabled, B+ zone history).
Key Factors
- Imanaga (2.51 ERA, B grade, 27.4 K%) >> Sproat (6.21 ERA, B- grade, 24.3 K%) = 3.7 ERA gap
- MIL bullpen 3.49 ERA (excellent), CHC bullpen 3.55 ERA (good) = combined run suppression
- Model 8.92 total vs market 10.5 = 15% edge on UNDER 10.5 (63.2% prob)
- F5 UNDER 5.5 also strong (12.5% edge, 58.3% prob). F5 totals zone is B+ (57.1% WR).
- Away ML edge only 5.8% and AWAY is RED ZONE (45.1% WR)
Risk Factors
- Totals zone overall YELLOW/RED (49.8% WR). Market may be correctly pricing 10.5.
- CHC at home could have early run surge; F5 UNDER cleaner than full-game UNDER
- Imanaga is excellent but not unbeatable; one bad inning = 3+ runs
PITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUEAWAY FAVORITEBULLPEN QUALITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 54.1%
-14.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-14.4 pts
Total
10.5
+15.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →