MIL vs CHC prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 4.6 - MIL 4.2. CHC is favored with a 55.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
CHC
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIL
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCMIL
+1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,186 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
246
CHC
357
Projected
CHC 4.6 — MIL 4.2
Actual
CHC 2 — MIL 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob Misiorowski R
MIL
FF61%100 mph40% whiff
SL24%94 mph24% whiff
CU13%87 mph38% whiff
Ben Brown R
CHC
KC36%87 mph43% whiff
FF36%96 mph12% whiff
SI22%97 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
73°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.978 Total: 0.985
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.40ERA
3.11FIP
9.72K/9
4.00BB/9
1.30WHIP
CHC
3.50ERA
4.66FIP
8.46K/9
3.85BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-30.6% EV
-182
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-17.9% EV
-122
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-17.5% EV
+150
ML AWAY
-14.9% EV
-116
F5_ML AWAY
-14.5% EV
-130
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+9.8% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.2 runs
39.1% win
CHC F5
2.5 runs
45.0% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
59.4%
YRFI
40.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Jake Bauers MIL27.0%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Ben Brown | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Ian Happ CHC16.4%
ISO: 0.231 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Jacob Misiorowski | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Moisés Ballesteros CHC12.2%
ISO: 0.122 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Jacob Misiorowski | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob Misiorowski
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Ben Brown
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Akil Baddoo LF60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Porter Hodge RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 55.6%
-30.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-30.6 pts
Total
7.5
+9.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →