MIL vs CHC prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 5.0 - MIL 5.1. CHC is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
CHC
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
MIL
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCMIL
+1.5
Run Line (CHC)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,197 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
357
CHC
357
Projected
CHC 5.0 — MIL 5.1
Actual
CHC 0 — MIL 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Harrison L
MIL
FF59%95 mph30% whiff
SV26%82 mph28% whiff
CH13%86 mph22% whiff
Edward Cabrera R
CHC
CH33%93 mph28% whiff
SI20%96 mph3% whiff
CU19%84 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
54°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.046 Total: 1.027
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.45ERA
3.07FIP
9.87K/9
4.00BB/9
1.31WHIP
CHC
3.99ERA
5.26FIP
8.09K/9
4.08BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 6.5
-44.0% EV
-123
TOTAL OVER 6.5
+39.5% EV
+102
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.1% EV
-233
F5 OVER 3.5
+27.6% EV
+104
F5_ML HOME
-14.1% EV
-128
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+4.6% EV
+188
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.9 runs
46.1% win
CHC F5
2.7 runs
40.2% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
54.0%
YRFI
46.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Edward Cabrera | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Brice Turang MIL24.5%
ISO: 0.271 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Edward Cabrera | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Yelich MIL12.6%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Edward Cabrera | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Harrison
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Edward Cabrera
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Akil Baddoo LF60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Porter Hodge RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 51.9%
-38.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.1 pts
Total
6.5
+39.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →