MIL vs CIN prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 4.9 - MIL 6.6. MIL is favored with a 56.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.5 total runs.
CIN
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
MIL
6.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINMIL
+1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.7% (2,512 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
579
CIN
357
Projected
CIN 4.9 — MIL 6.6
Actual
CIN 1 — MIL 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Woodruff R
MIL
FF42%92 mph21% whiff
CH21%83 mph40% whiff
SI18%92 mph10% whiff
Brady Singer R
CIN
SI48%91 mph11% whiff
SL32%82 mph30% whiff
ST10%81 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
64°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.016 Total: 1.008
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
CIN
4.59ERA
5.23FIP
8.86K/9
5.87BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.9% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-19.1% EV
-112
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+10.4% EV
-108
F5_ML HOME
-9.8% EV
+120
ML AWAY
-5.3% EV
-152
F5 OVER 5.5
+5.0% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
3.5 runs
52.2% win
CIN F5
2.7 runs
35.4% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
49.6%
YRFI
50.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.17
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
8%
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Brady Singer | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Jackson Chourio MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Brady Singer | Park: 1.08x
Brice Turang MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Brady Singer | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Woodruff
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Brady Singer
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Coleman Crow SP15-DAY-IL
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN8 injured
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Elly De La Cruz SS10-DAY-IL
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=222)
Model projects 11.47 total runs vs market 9.5 — OVER 9.5 at 10.4% edge (57.2% model prob). Both starters weak (Singer 0 ERA recorded but 6.9 K-rate, Woodruff 0 ERA but 7.5 K-rate). Great American Ball Park is hitter-friendly (+8% HR factor). MIL projects 6.56 runs, CIN 4.91 — runs are expected.
Key Factors
- Model total 11.47 vs market 9.5 = 1.97-run OVER edge at 10.4% (57.2% prob)
- Singer weak (6.9 K-rate, no recorded ERA data), Woodruff weak (7.5 K-rate) — neither elite control
- Great American Park: +1.08 park factor, +1.016 HR multiplier — hitter-friendly venue
- MIL projects 6.56 runs away (Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio both 30% HR prob) vs CIN 4.91 home
- F5 OVER 5.5 edge 5.0% (50.5% prob) — modest but confirming theme
Risk Factors
- Zone profile YELLOW on totals; same market that auto-disabled UNDER bets
- 10.4% edge significant but Woodruff has B grade command; late-game pitcher control may help under
- Both teams have weak bullpens: CIN 4.59 ERA, MIL 3.66 ERA — could reduce run environment
TOTALS VALUEYELLOW ZONEPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 56.8%
-39.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.9 pts
Total
9.5
+10.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →