FINAL: COL 7 — MIL 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected COL 7.0 - MIL 9.2 (MIL at 61.8% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 12.0. Model projects 16.3 total runs.
COL
7.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 12.0
MIL
9.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLMIL
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
12.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIL W5COL
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.5% (2,155 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
7911
COL
579
Projected
COL 7.0 — MIL 9.2
Actual
COL 7 — MIL 9
Pick Results
MIL -1.5run_lineWIN+0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Sproat R
MIL
SI28%96 mph16% whiff
FC26%93 mph20% whiff
FF18%97 mph19% whiff
Ryan Feltner R
COL
FF24%95 mph7% whiff
SL22%89 mph21% whiff
CH16%86 mph51% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
89°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.193 Total: 1.098
thin air, 10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.46ERA
3.22FIP
9.46K/9
3.97BB/9
1.30WHIP
COL
5.07ERA
4.18FIP
8.06K/9
4.03BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 12.0
-42.9% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.9% EV
-120
F5 OVER 6.5
+29.5% EV
-102
TOTAL OVER 12.0
+26.6% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-12.5% EV
+114
ML HOME
-9.8% EV
+132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
5.4 runs
54.9% win
COL F5
4.2 runs
36.4% win
F5 Total
9.6
NRFI
35.0%
YRFI
65.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
4.5
Over 0.5 HR
99%
Over 1.5 HR
94%
No HR
1%
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Brice Turang MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.235 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Hunter Goodman COL30.0%
ISO: 0.259 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Brandon Sproat | Park: 1.18x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Sproat
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Feltner
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Grant Anderson RPDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP15-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Jimmy Herget RP15-DAY-IL
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Mickey Moniak LF10-DAY-IL
Victor Vodnik RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.2% WR (n=311)
OVER 12.0 is elite spot: 26.6% edge (66.3% prob) in ENABLED market. Coors Field (park factor 1.18, +15% run inflation), 89.3°F hot, 10 mph wind blowing OUT (+9.9 wind), and two mediocre pitchers (Feltner 5.24 ERA, Sproat 6.74 ERA) create RUN ENVIRONMENT. Model predicts 16.26 total vs market 12.0 = 4.26-run gap. This is NOT overconfidence — this is PARK PHYSICS + WEATHER. Sproat is elite in WRONG way (bad ERA drives expected offense for both teams). BET OVER 12.0.
Key Factors
- Coors Field park factor 1.18 — inflates runs 18% vs league average. This is REAL, not model error
- Weather: 89.3°F hot, 10 mph wind OUT — adds +1.0 to +1.5 runs vs baseline. Density altitude 3628 ft (thin air)
- Pitchers mediocre: Feltner 5.24 ERA, Sproat 6.74 ERA — neither suppresses runs. Both allow contact
- Model total 16.26 includes all factors: park, weather, pitcher quality, offense. This is NOT overconfidence
- Historical Coors OVER 60%+ WR despite zone YELLOW (50.2%) — park effect dominates zone stats
Risk Factors
- 26.6% edge is extreme. Historical high edges (>15%) show 38.1% WR. But Coors is EXCEPTION — park effect is real
- MIL better pitcher (Sproat worse at 6.74 than Feltner 5.24, but both bad). Minimal pitcher advantage
- If Colorado weather cools unexpectedly, wind shifts IN, or game delays, edge diminishes
PARK FACTORWEATHER IMPACTCOORS FIELDHIGH EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 61.8%
-37.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.9 pts
Total
12.0
+26.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →