MIL vs MIN prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 4.1 - MIL 3.9. MIN is favored with a 54.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
MIN
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIL
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINMIL
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
246
MIN
246
Projected
MIN 4.1 — MIL 3.9
Actual
MIN 5 — MIL 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robert Gasser L
MIL
ST33%82 mph40% whiff
SI23%93 mph11% whiff
FF21%94 mph23% whiff
Bailey Ober R
MIN
CH36%83 mph24% whiff
FF32%89 mph16% whiff
SL15%82 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
73°F14 mph wind
HR: 1.089 Total: 1.048
thin air, 10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.46ERA
3.14FIP
9.65K/9
4.15BB/9
1.32WHIP
MIN
5.21ERA
4.52FIP
7.30K/9
4.41BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-31.1% EV
-156
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-22.2% EV
+130
F5_ML AWAY
-16.2% EV
-128
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-15.9% EV
-104
ML AWAY
-15.7% EV
-132
ML HOME
+10.5% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.1 runs
37.2% win
MIN F5
2.4 runs
45.5% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
59.2%
YRFI
40.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
10%
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.220 | Barrel: 10.3% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Kreidler MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Robert Gasser | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Brice Turang MIL28.4%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Robert Gasser
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Bailey Ober
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Christian Yelich DHDAY-TO-DAY
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Jacob Misiorowski SPDAY-TO-DAY
Akil Baddoo LF60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN8 injured
Taj Bradley SP15-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CFDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Pablo Lopez SP60-DAY-IL
Cody Laweryson RP15-DAY-IL
Cory Lewis SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 54.5%
-31.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-31.1 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →