MIL vs OAK prediction for June 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.7 - MIL 4.8. OAK is favored with a 50.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 12.5. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
OAK
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 12.5
MIL
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKMIL
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
12.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (2,249 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
357
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 4.7 — MIL 4.8
Actual
OAK 7 — MIL 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robert Gasser L
MIL
SI31%92 mph14% whiff
ST23%80 mph28% whiff
FC22%88 mph31% whiff
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
SI37%94 mph20% whiff
FC17%91 mph15% whiff
SL17%86 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
64°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.982 Total: 0.988
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.36ERA
3.48FIP
9.40K/9
4.03BB/9
1.26WHIP
OAK
4.67ERA
3.78FIP
9.83K/9
4.30BB/9
1.43WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 12.5
-48.0% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 12.5
+40.8% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-31.5% EV
-156
F5 UNDER 6.5
+22.1% EV
-102
NRFI NRFI
+17.1% EV
+150
F5_ML AWAY
-14.4% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.5 runs
36.6% win
OAK F5
3.0 runs
49.3% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
52.2%
YRFI
47.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Robert Gasser
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
J.T. Ginn
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Carlos Rodriguez RP15-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP15-DAY-IL
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK6 injured
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Aaron Civale SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP15-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.2% WR (n=322)
Model projects 9.53 runs vs 12.5 market total (40.8% UNDER edge, 72.2% prob)—the SECOND MOST EXTREME edge on slate; despite J.T. Ginn (2.96 ERA) beating Robert Gasser (5.11 ERA), both UNDER and NRFI are disabled in calibration (44.2% WR, 45.7% WR, F ratings), indicating market has consistently beaten model on low-run plays.
Key Factors
- Extreme edge (40.8%) with extreme prob (72.2%): Among worst-performing combinations historically; likely trap
- UNDER disabled: 44.2% WR (F rating, n=243) indicates catastrophic underperformance; DO NOT force bets in disabled categories
- NRFI disabled: 45.7% WR (F rating, n=267) also catastrophic; market knows first innings won't be no-run
- Market total 12.5 deliberate: Likely reflects sharp consensus that runs will score despite low-ERA pitchers
Risk Factors
- Model overfit to pitcher ERA: Ginn's 2.96 ERA may not reflect recent form or bullpen quality not captured in grade
- Extreme edge trap: 40%+ edges are historical anomalies and typically represent model failures
HIGH EDGE WARNINGBET TYPE DISABLEDEXTREME EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 50.7%
-31.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-31.5 pts
Total
12.5
+40.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →