MIL vs OAK prediction for June 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.6 - MIL 6.1. MIL is favored with a 59.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 14.5. Model projects 10.7 total runs.
OAK
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 14.5
MIL
6.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKMIL
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
14.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.6% (2,257 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
468
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 4.6 — MIL 6.1
Actual
OAK 4 — MIL 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Sproat R
MIL
SI28%96 mph16% whiff
FC25%93 mph19% whiff
FF19%97 mph17% whiff
Jack Perkins R
OAK
FF40%96 mph16% whiff
ST31%86 mph37% whiff
CH16%90 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
84°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.011 Total: 1.004
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.39ERA
3.55FIP
9.40K/9
4.06BB/9
1.27WHIP
OAK
4.61ERA
3.70FIP
9.97K/9
4.24BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 14.5
-62.3% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 14.5
+55.7% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-44.2% EV
-161
F5 UNDER 8.5
+28.0% EV
-130
ML HOME
-18.6% EV
-112
F5_ML HOME
-17.9% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
3.4 runs
51.0% win
OAK F5
2.7 runs
37.0% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
45.8%
YRFI
54.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.28
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.265 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Jack Perkins | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Nick Kurtz OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.266 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Brandon Sproat | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Tyler Soderstrom OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.199 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Brandon Sproat | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Sproat
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Jack Perkins
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Megill RPDAY-TO-DAY
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK6 injured
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Aaron Civale SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP15-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE50.1% WR (n=312)
EXTREME UNDER value: Market total 14.5 is inflated. Model 10.71 vs market 14.5 (3.79 run gap — LARGEST on slate). Jack Perkins (6.69 ERA) vs Brandon Sproat (6.66 ERA) are both poor, but low-scoring environment expected. Model 79.8% UNDER 14.5 = +55.7% edge (MASSIVE). F5 UNDER also +28.0% edge. NRFI +15.4% edge.
Key Factors
- SP washout matchup: Perkins (6.69 ERA, 27.1% K) vs Sproat (6.66 ERA, 23.1% K) — both terrible. Neither can dominate but low-quality pitching + weak offense = suppressed scoring.
- 3.79 run gap (LARGEST): Model 10.71 vs market 14.5 is EXTREME. Market total appears set for over-betting public (20.2% implied on UNDER vs 79.8% model).
- F5 UNDER +28%: Model 72.3% vs market ~44% — early inning under is SHARPEST angle. Weak offenses won't attack early with poor pitching.
- NRFI +15.4% (41.2% model NRFI) — scoreless first quarter strong likelihood.
Risk Factors
- +55.7% edge is EXTREME OUTLIER. Market may have reason: OAK historically high-scoring park (1.0 factor) or public bias inflates total deliberately.
- Market disabled UNDER (44.5% WR on 240 picks, grade F). Avoid UNDER despite massive edge — historical failure.
- F5 UNDER (enabled, 53.8% WR, grade B) is cleaner vehicle than full-game UNDER.
HIGH EDGE WARNINGGREEN ZONERED ZONEDATA INTEGRITYLINE VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 59.2%
-44.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-44.2 pts
Total
14.5
+55.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →