MIL vs SF prediction for July 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.2 - MIL 3.3. SF is favored with a 50.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.6 total runs.
SF
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIL
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFMIL
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.1% (3,049 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
135
SF
135
Projected
SF 3.2 — MIL 3.3
Actual
SF 3 — MIL 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Henderson R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%93 mph21% whiff
CH33%82 mph33% whiff
FC21%87 mph13% whiff
Landen Roupp R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI35%93 mph8% whiff
CU26%77 mph33% whiff
CH20%87 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
66°F20 mph wind
HR: 1.108 Total: 1.063
19mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
1.7 runs
37.7% win
SF F5
1.8 runs
42.5% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
63.0%
YRFI
37.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Kyle Harrison SP15-DAY-IL
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF60-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Jung Hoo Lee RFDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Jonah Cox CF10-DAY-IL
Trevor McDonald SP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.