MIL vs STL prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.4 - MIL 4.2. STL is favored with a 53.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
STL
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
MIL
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLMIL
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIL W5STL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
246
STL
246
Projected
STL 4.4 — MIL 4.2
Actual
STL 6 — MIL 3
Pick Results
Nathan Church OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chad Patrick R
MIL
FC38%89 mph25% whiff
FF24%94 mph17% whiff
SI20%94 mph9% whiff
Kyle Leahy R
STL
FF30%94 mph8% whiff
SI17%94 mph4% whiff
SL15%89 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
81°F16 mph wind
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.990
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.62ERA
3.34FIP
9.83K/9
4.26BB/9
1.37WHIP
STL
4.90ERA
4.37FIP
7.92K/9
4.95BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-30.8% EV
-147
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-22.0% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-21.8% EV
+122
F5_ML AWAY
-16.3% EV
-128
ML AWAY
-13.5% EV
-130
NRFI NRFI
+10.2% EV
+104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.2 runs
38.0% win
STL F5
2.5 runs
46.5% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
56.6%
YRFI
43.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Chad Patrick | Park: 0.98x
JJ Wetherholt STL30.0%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Chad Patrick | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chad Patrick
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP15-DAY-IL
Jacob Misiorowski SPDAY-TO-DAY
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Christian Yelich LF10-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL7 injured
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 53.0%
-30.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-30.8 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →