FINAL: STL 2 — MIL 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 2.9 - MIL 3.2 (MIL at 53.3% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.1 total runs.
STL
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIL
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLMIL
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIL W5STL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
135
STL
135
Projected
STL 2.9 — MIL 3.2
Actual
STL 2 — MIL 6
Pick Results
MIL @ STL NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Sproat R
MIL
SI27%97 mph10% whiff
FC26%94 mph15% whiff
CU15%83 mph33% whiff
Andre Pallante R
STL
FF30%95 mph14% whiff
SL26%87 mph39% whiff
SI20%95 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
54°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.002 Total: 1.000
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.59ERA
3.26FIP
9.82K/9
4.12BB/9
1.36WHIP
STL
4.90ERA
4.45FIP
7.83K/9
4.94BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-44.7% EV
-196
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-43.4% EV
-112
F5 UNDER 4.5
+32.0% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+26.0% EV
-108
NRFI NRFI
+15.9% EV
-125
F5_ML HOME
-10.2% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
1.5 runs
39.7% win
STL F5
1.4 runs
36.1% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
68.3%
YRFI
31.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.58
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.2
Over 0.5 HR
69%
Over 1.5 HR
34%
No HR
31%
Brice Turang MIL28.7%
ISO: 0.272 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Bauers MIL23.8%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Alec Burleson STL23.4%
ISO: 0.219 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Brandon Sproat | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Sproat
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP15-DAY-IL
Christian Yelich LF10-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Gerson Garabito RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
STL8 injured
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.7% WR (n=236)
Model projects 6.10 total runs but market is set 8.0. Massive 26% edge on UNDER (65.3% model prob vs market ~38% prob implied). SP matchup is middling (Pallante 4.03 ERA vs Sproat 7.29 ERA shows quality gap favoring STL, but both are below-league-average arms). Cold weather (53.7°F) and bullpen strength (MIL 3.59 relief ERA, STL 4.90) suppress runs. Model UNDER is actionable despite coming from disabled (TOTAL market).
Key Factors
- Extreme edge: 26% model-market disagreement on UNDER (model 65.3% vs market 38%) — highest on slate but triggers overconfidence warning.
- Weather impact: 53.7°F cold St. Louis, neutral wind, lowers run scoring by ~1.0 run total vs baseline.
- SP quality mismatch: Pallante 4.03 ERA vs Sproat 7.29 ERA (4.26 gap) strongly favors home STL, but STL is home and under bets don't directly capture that advantage.
- F5 UNDER edge 32%: Model 70.2% vs market ~38%, in GREEN zone (57.4% WR). F5 is more reliable predictor than full game.
Risk Factors
- Edge >25% = HIGH_EDGE_WARNING. Model overconfidence historically associated with edge >15%. Recommend cap at +1 confidence even if zone is GREEN.
- TOTAL market is DISABLED (grade D). Recent history: 49.3% WR on totals, -30.8 units. Placing large bets against market-wide edge contradicts recent calibration.
- Small sample bias: YELLOW zone (236 picks) but 50.7% WR is barely above noise. Recommend reducing unit size to 0.75 to account for TOTAL market unreliability.
HIGH EDGE WARNING (26% edge, triggers overconfidence check)DISABLED MARKET (TOTAL grade D, 49.3% WR)F5 VALUE (GREEN zone, 57.4% WR)COLD WEATHER IMPACT (-1 run total)SP MISMATCH (favors STL, but outcome suppressed)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 53.3%
-44.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-44.7 pts
Total
8.0
+26.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →