MIN vs BOS prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 4.4 - MIN 4.8. MIN is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
BOS
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
MIN
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSMIN
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.4% (2,282 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
357
BOS
246
Projected
BOS 4.4 — MIN 4.8
Actual
BOS 5 — MIN 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bailey Ober R
MIN
CH36%83 mph24% whiff
FF31%89 mph15% whiff
SL15%83 mph10% whiff
Sonny Gray R
BOS
FC23%89 mph10% whiff
SI19%92 mph21% whiff
CU19%80 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
53°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.033 Total: 1.021
9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.69ERA
4.14FIP
7.56K/9
4.20BB/9
1.41WHIP
BOS
3.68ERA
4.28FIP
8.85K/9
3.41BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-33.4% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-29.4% EV
-161
ML AWAY
+21.1% EV
+146
ML HOME
-20.3% EV
-175
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-19.9% EV
+134
F5_ML HOME
-17.8% EV
-167
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.6 runs
43.4% win
BOS F5
2.5 runs
41.0% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
53.9%
YRFI
46.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
49%
No HR
20%
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS21.6%
ISO: 0.121 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 1.08x
Trevor Larnach MIN20.4%
ISO: 0.119 | Barrel: 6.4% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Jarren Duran BOS19.5%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bailey Ober
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Sonny Gray
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Tristan Gray 3BPATERNITY
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Walker Jenkins CFDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS10-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE44.5% WR (n=163)
Model shows 21.1% MIN away edge (very high) but away ML is RED zone (44.5% WR, n=163); market correctly pricing BOS favorite despite Sonny Gray's lower strikeout rate — model overestimating away team value in high-edge territory.
Key Factors
- Model projects 49.2% MIN win prob but market only 40.7% — 8.5% gap is suspicious in high-confidence zone
- Bailey Ober (MIN away SP): 6.3 K/9, low K rate, C+ overall grade. Sonny Gray (BOS home): 6.8 K/9, B- grade
- Pitchers nearly identical in quality (both middle-rotation tier), so edge must come from lineup differential
- Weather: 52.8F, 9.2 mph wind BLOWING OUT — adds 0.5-1.0 runs, slight over lean if betting, but market hasn't moved total
- Away ML RED zone: 44.5% WR across 163 tracked games — this game's 21.1% edge is exactly where we fail most
Risk Factors
- Edge >15% combined with away ML positioning = worst historical WR in our database. Model likely overconfident by 5-7%.
- BOS played yesterday (swept MIN 3 games, including 6-5 Sunday) — fresh MIN team vs tired BOS is real edge, but market already prices it
- Market disrespect of MIN is intentional (sharp money on BOS after sweep). Fading market is dangerous.
RED ZONEHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 51.7%
-19.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-19.9 pts
Total
7.0
+7.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →