MIN vs BOS prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 4.4 - MIN 4.8. MIN is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
BOS
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
MIN
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSMIN
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
357
BOS
246
Projected
BOS 4.4 — MIN 4.8
Actual
BOS 5 — MIN 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bailey Ober R
MIN
CH36%83 mph24% whiff
FF31%89 mph15% whiff
SL15%83 mph10% whiff
Sonny Gray R
BOS
FC23%89 mph10% whiff
SI19%92 mph21% whiff
CU19%80 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
53°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.033 Total: 1.021
9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.69ERA
4.14FIP
7.56K/9
4.20BB/9
1.41WHIP
BOS
3.68ERA
4.28FIP
8.85K/9
3.41BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-33.4% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-29.4% EV
-161
ML AWAY
+21.1% EV
+146
ML HOME
-20.3% EV
-175
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-19.9% EV
+134
F5_ML HOME
-17.8% EV
-167
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.6 runs
43.4% win
BOS F5
2.5 runs
41.0% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
53.9%
YRFI
46.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
49%
No HR
20%
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS21.6%
ISO: 0.121 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 1.08x
Trevor Larnach MIN20.4%
ISO: 0.119 | Barrel: 6.4% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Jarren Duran BOS19.5%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bailey Ober
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Sonny Gray
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Tristan Gray 3BPATERNITY
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Walker Jenkins CFDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS10-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model shows 21.1% MIN away edge (very high) but away ML is historically weak; market correctly pricing BOS favorite despite Sonny Gray's lower strikeout rate — model overestimating away team value in high-edge territory.
Key Factors
- Model projects 49.2% MIN win prob but market only 40.7% — 8.5% gap is suspicious in high-confidence zone
- Bailey Ober (MIN away SP): 6.3 K/9, low K rate, C+ overall grade. Sonny Gray (BOS home): 6.8 K/9, B- grade
- Pitchers nearly identical in quality (both middle-rotation tier), so edge must come from lineup differential
- Weather: 52.8F, 9.2 mph wind BLOWING OUT — adds 0.5-1.0 runs, slight over lean if betting, but market hasn't moved total
- Away ML historically weak: a supportive track record across 163 tracked games — this game's 21.1% edge is exactly where we fail most
Risk Factors
- Edge >15% combined with away ML positioning = worst historical WR in our database. Model likely overconfident by 5-7%.
- BOS played yesterday (swept MIN 3 games, including 6-5 Sunday) — fresh MIN team vs tired BOS is real edge, but market already prices it
- Market disrespect of MIN is intentional (sharp money on BOS after sweep). Fading market is dangerous.
HIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 51.7%
-19.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-19.9 pts
Total
7.0
+7.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →