MIN vs CLE prediction for May 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.3 - MIN 2.9. CLE is favored with a 66.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
CLE
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIN
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEMIN
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
135
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 4.3 — MIN 2.9
Actual
CLE 6 — MIN 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Connor Prielipp L
MIN
SL40%88 mph27% whiff
FF33%95 mph9% whiff
CH14%87 mph43% whiff
Parker Messick L
CLE
FF32%94 mph13% whiff
CH24%85 mph46% whiff
SI12%92 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
56°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.991
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
5.75ERA
4.85FIP
7.45K/9
4.48BB/9
1.58WHIP
CLE
4.12ERA
4.11FIP
9.91K/9
3.72BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-52.0% EV
-185
F5_ML AWAY
-23.6% EV
+112
ML AWAY
-19.2% EV
+124
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-15.9% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+14.3% EV
+152
F5_ML HOME
+9.4% EV
-141
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.4 runs
27.0% win
CLE F5
2.5 runs
54.1% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
59.5%
YRFI
40.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
45%
No HR
22%
Angel Martínez CLE23.3%
ISO: 0.099 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Connor Prielipp | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Byron Buxton MIN20.0%
ISO: 0.082 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Parker Messick | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
David Fry CLE17.8%
ISO: 0.120 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Connor Prielipp | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Connor Prielipp
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Parker Messick
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Pablo Lopez SP60-DAY-IL
Cody Laweryson RP15-DAY-IL
Cory Lewis SPDAY-TO-DAY
Garrett Acton RP15-DAY-IL
Julian Merryweather RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE55.3% WR (n=12)
Home favorite CLE (63.9% model vs 59.5% market) backed by exceptional SP mismatch: Messick 2.59 ERA, B grade + 28.2% K rate vs Prielipp 4.17 ERA, C+ grade = 1.58 ERA gap (strongest on slate except TB @ BOS). Cold weather (56F, 6mph in) + home field = straightforward home lean.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch elite: Messick 2.59 ERA (B grade, 28.2% K, 6.2% BB) vs Prielipp 4.17 ERA (C+, 26.8% K, 8.9% BB) = 1.58 ERA gap (3rd best on slate)
- Home field standard advantage: CLE playing at home with crowd; Messick's control advantage (6.2% BB vs 8.9%) magnified at home
- Cold weather neutral to slight UNDER: 56F with 6mph in = minimal run suppression (0.991 multiplier); 0.1 run drag
- Green zone home ML: 55.3% WR (GREEN, n=12) — strong historical profitability for this zone type
- First 5 advantage: Home F5 at 54.1% (slight lean); game likely controlled early
Risk Factors
- Messick young arm (B grade, not ace); one bad outing could reverse edge
- Minnesota lineup unknown strength; early May team may have undervalued hitters
- Standard -147 home line likely reflected sharp action already; minimal surprise upside
HOME FAVORITEELITE SP MISMATCHGREEN ZONECOLD WEATHER SLIGHT UNDERSTRAIGHTFORWARD LEAN
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 66.1%
+14.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+14.3 pts
Total
7.5
+6.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →