MIN vs CLE prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.7 - MIN 3.2. CLE is favored with a 67.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
CLE
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIN
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEMIN
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
135
CLE
357
Projected
CLE 4.7 — MIN 3.2
Actual
CLE 1 — MIN 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joe Ryan R
MIN
FF42%92 mph23% whiff
SI14%92 mph8% whiff
KC12%78 mph30% whiff
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
FC28%86 mph37% whiff
FF25%94 mph6% whiff
CH18%81 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
70°F14 mph wind
HR: 0.991 Total: 0.992
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
5.76ERA
4.85FIP
7.30K/9
4.45BB/9
1.58WHIP
CLE
4.23ERA
4.15FIP
10.00K/9
3.72BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-36.6% EV
+160
F5_ML AWAY
-28.5% EV
-112
ML AWAY
-26.6% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-19.2% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-17.6% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
+17.5% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.6 runs
28.3% win
CLE F5
2.8 runs
55.6% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
59.6%
YRFI
40.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
9%
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.386 | Barrel: 16.5% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x
Brooks Lee MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.165 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Daniel Schneemann CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.186 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Joe Ryan
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Taj Bradley SP15-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Pablo Lopez SP60-DAY-IL
Cody Laweryson RP15-DAY-IL
Cory Lewis SPDAY-TO-DAY
Garrett Acton RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE53.0% WR (n=144)
Tanner Bibee (4.95 ERA, 19.9% K, C+ grade) is clearly overmatched by Joe Ryan's quality (4.02 ERA, 23.9% K, B grade). CLE home advantage + pitcher quality gap + market pricing MIN at 100 (50% implied) when model says 36.7% creates 17.1% ML edge. This is a rare HIGH-CONFIDENCE home favorite scenario (grade B, combo|ml|home = 83.3% WR).
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Bibee (4.95 ERA, 19.9% K, C+ grade) vs Ryan (4.02 ERA, 23.9% K, B grade). CLE arm advantage ~0.9 ERA gap.
- ML edge 17.1%: Model 63.3% home vs market 54.1% implied = 9.2% gap. Strong home favorite value.
- Zone support: MLB|ml|home = 53% WR overall (144 samples), combo|ml|home = 83.3% WR (5-1, elite sample).
- Home field advantage: CLE plays at neutral park, 70.1F neutral conditions. Pure team matchup.
- MIN injuries: Gabriel Arias (SS 10-day hamstring), multiple SP injuries reduce depth. Bullpen likely tired.
Risk Factors
- Both teams in AL Central with recent games (unpredictable variance).
- MIN has won consistently recently (context needed).
- Bibee had recent good starts? (No date context, assume baseline ERA reliable.)
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUEGREEN ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 67.0%
-19.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-19.2 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →