MIN vs CLE prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 3.4 - MIN 3.4. CLE is favored with a 51.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
CLE
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIN
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEMIN
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
135
CLE
135
Projected
CLE 3.4 — MIN 3.4
Actual
CLE 4 — MIN 5
Pick Results
Daniel Schneemann OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+0.78u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Morris R
MIN
FF38%96 mph17% whiff
ST22%82 mph34% whiff
FC14%88 mph17% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
FF29%96 mph25% whiff
ST27%87 mph43% whiff
CU19%83 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
53°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
5.57ERA
4.87FIP
7.13K/9
4.61BB/9
1.57WHIP
CLE
4.08ERA
4.02FIP
10.16K/9
3.65BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.2% EV
-167
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-20.7% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-17.0% EV
+138
F5_ML HOME
-14.4% EV
-156
ML HOME
-12.8% EV
-159
F5 UNDER 4.5
+11.4% EV
-152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.7 runs
38.9% win
CLE F5
1.7 runs
39.3% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
67.7%
YRFI
32.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.60
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
77%
Over 1.5 HR
43%
No HR
23%
Chase DeLauter CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Andrew Morris | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Byron Buxton MIN29.9%
ISO: 0.405 | Barrel: 17.5% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x
Daniel Schneemann CLE25.9%
ISO: 0.180 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Andrew Morris | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andrew Morris
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Taj Bradley SP15-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Pablo Lopez SP60-DAY-IL
Cody Laweryson RP15-DAY-IL
Cory Lewis SPDAY-TO-DAY
Garrett Acton RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE46.9% WR (n=142)
Model shows MIN 48.5% (away) with tiny +8.8% ML edge. Market has CLE -158 (61.3%), implying CLE is MUCH stronger than model believes. Williams (3.54 ERA, 29.0% K, B grade) is solid pitcher with home field advantage, while Morris (5.36, 20.5% K, B-) is weaker. Cold weather (52.9°F) suppresses runs. Market is correctly respecting CLE's pitcher advantage + home — more than model is.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage CLE: Williams 3.54 ERA, 29.0% K (solid #2-3) vs Morris 5.36, 20.5% K (weak #4). CLE has real advantage.
- Market at -158 (61.3%) is MUCH MORE confident in CLE than model (51.5%). This is a MARKET RESPECTS PITCHER signal.
- Cold 52.9°F suppresses runs; model 6.77 vs market 7.5 is reasonable gap (0.73 run difference)
- MIN has +8.8% ML edge away, but YELLOW zone (46.9% WR) — not sufficient edge for action
Risk Factors
- Market -158 suggests sharp money is heavily on CLE, opposite of model's mild away edge to MIN
- Williams (B grade, 29.0% K) is legitimately a good pitcher; market respects this correctly
- MIN lineup may not be strong enough to overcome both pitcher disadvantage and cold weather suppression
MARKET RESPECTS PITCHER ADVANTAGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 51.5%
-17.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-17.0 pts
Total
7.5
+9.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →