MIN vs CWS prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 5.2 - MIN 6.5. MIN is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.6 total runs.
CWS
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIN
6.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSMIN
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
568
CWS
357
Projected
CWS 5.2 — MIN 6.5
Actual
CWS 3 — MIN 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
FF42%96 mph19% whiff
SL24%88 mph36% whiff
FC13%92 mph23% whiff
Anthony Kay L
CWS
FF28%96 mph16% whiff
FC20%91 mph17% whiff
ST19%82 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
79°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.068 Total: 1.037
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.63ERA
4.10FIP
7.56K/9
4.14BB/9
1.40WHIP
CWS
5.22ERA
5.13FIP
8.73K/9
5.24BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-43.3% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-36.8% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+29.6% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
-19.8% EV
-102
ML HOME
-16.1% EV
-106
F5 OVER 4.5
+13.5% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
3.6 runs
54.5% win
CWS F5
2.7 runs
33.5% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
50.4%
YRFI
49.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.11
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.089 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Kreidler MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.158 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.252 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zebby Matthews
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Anthony Kay
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Walker Jenkins CFDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model projects 11.61 total runs (OVER 8.5, +29.6% edge, 65.5% model prob) — massive edge driven by warm weather (79F), thin-air Kansas City effect (1.028x run multiplier, 1.037x total mult), and two mediocre starters (Anthony Kay no-data ERA vs Zebby Matthews no-data; Kay quality bottom-20 percentile per grade C-, Matthews B grade). Wind 7mph out amplifies HR potential.
Key Factors
- Massive total gap: +3.11 runs (model 11.61 vs market 8.5) — 37% underpricing by market if model correct
- Park/weather multiplier: 1.037x total multiplier (thin air, warm temp 79F, wind 7mph out, HR mult 1.068x) = cumulative ~1.04x boost = ~0.35 additional runs baseline
- Pitcher profile uncertainty: Anthony Kay with 0 ERA (literally no 2026 starts?) and Zebby Matthews also new/no-ERA. Grade shows Kay C- (worst in slate), Matthews B — significant skill gap (+15-20% win prob swing)
- CWS bullpen (ERA 5.22, quality 0.86) is WORST in MLB per bullpen stats; MIN bullpen (ERA 4.63, quality 0.97) still weak. Late innings = runs likely scoring.
- NRFI probability 50.4% (almost coin flip) — elevated first-inning risk suggests scoring starts early, contradicts under lean.
Risk Factors
- HIGH_EDGE_WARNING: 29.6% edge is EXTREME and beyond calibration comfort zone. Totals are grade F (44.9% WR) — this massive edge likely represents model overconfidence in environment multipliers.
- TBD pitcher (Kay) with zero documented ERA — cannot verify actual control. If Kay pitches effectively despite C- grade, unders could hit hard.
- Calibration signal: Totals >20% edge historically show DEGRADED win rates. This 29.6% edge is likely false signal.
WEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORPITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNINGTBD PITCHER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 58.2%
-43.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-43.3 pts
Total
8.5
+29.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →