MIN vs CWS prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 4.7 - MIN 5.2. MIN is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
CWS
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIN
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSMIN
-1.5
Run Line (CWS)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
357
CWS
357
Projected
CWS 4.7 — MIN 5.2
Actual
CWS 6 — MIN 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Simeon Woods Richardson R
MIN
FF42%92 mph18% whiff
FS27%87 mph16% whiff
SL26%86 mph16% whiff
Davis Martin R
CWS
FF25%94 mph25% whiff
CH17%90 mph15% whiff
SI16%93 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
65°F15 mph wind
HR: 1.069 Total: 1.039
10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.15ERA
3.92FIP
7.91K/9
4.10BB/9
1.34WHIP
CWS
5.20ERA
5.03FIP
8.80K/9
5.16BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-27.2% EV
-149
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-24.7% EV
+102
ML AWAY
+21.4% EV
+146
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-20.8% EV
+125
ML HOME
-20.5% EV
-175
F5_ML HOME
-14.0% EV
-164
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.6 runs
42.1% win
CWS F5
2.8 runs
44.5% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
49.5%
YRFI
50.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.336 | Barrel: 18.0% | vs Simeon Woods Richardson | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 14.2% | vs Simeon Woods Richardson | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Randal Grichuk CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 15.9% | vs Simeon Woods Richardson | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Simeon Woods Richardson
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Davis Martin
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Walker Jenkins CFDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=288)
Model projects 9.91 total runs vs market 7.5, edge 13.6% on OVER. However, totals market is entirely disabled (Grade F) due to catastrophic 45.3% under WR. This edge is likely model overconfidence. Park factor 1.039x and 10mph wind out support slight over lean, but calibration failure means SKIP totals entirely. F5 OVER at 4.5 shows 7.3% edge (more trustworthy). LEAN F5 OVER instead.
Key Factors
- Davis Martin (home) ERA 2.20, K/9 8.0, B grade stuff — significantly superior to SWR (TBD/C grade, 4.4 K/9)
- Woods Richardson 4.4 K/9 with D stuff grade = weak strikeout profile; Martin likely to dominate early
- Weather: 10mph tail wind blowing out, 65.1F cool (slight under suppression) but park factor +3.9% total multiplier favors runs
- Min @ CWS shows CWS is 10-game leader in team strikeouts — favorable environment for both K overs AND scoring
- F5 OVER 4.5 at 7.3% edge is in F5_total enabled market (B grade, 54.2% WR). This is safer than full-game total
Risk Factors
- Full-game OVER has 13.6% edge but totals market is disabled (F grade 45.3% WR, n=423). Do not trust this edge
- Woods Richardson TBD pitcher introduces max uncertainty. If he's called up or is on short rest, model projections are unreliable
- CWS bullpen ERA (unknown tier quality) could cap scoring in later innings despite early runs
TOTALS MARKET DISABLEDTOTAL EDGE OVERCONFIDENCEHIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER SUPPORTF5 CLEANER EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 51.9%
-20.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-20.8 pts
Total
7.5
+13.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →