MIN vs DET prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 5.2 - MIN 4.9. DET is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
DET
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
MIN
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETMIN
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (2,284 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
357
DET
357
Projected
DET 5.2 — MIN 4.9
Actual
DET 11 — MIN 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
FF38%95 mph11% whiff
SL20%87 mph36% whiff
CU15%80 mph37% whiff
Keider Montero R
DET
FF33%94 mph9% whiff
SI20%95 mph9% whiff
SL17%86 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
78°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.001 Total: 0.997
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.91ERA
4.39FIP
8.72K/9
4.54BB/9
1.46WHIP
DET
4.40ERA
4.33FIP
8.80K/9
4.28BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.7% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-11.9% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
-10.0% EV
-104
ML AWAY
-4.2% EV
+110
ML HOME
-3.8% EV
-130
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+2.6% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.7 runs
39.1% win
DET F5
3.1 runs
47.5% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
46.3%
YRFI
53.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.25
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
79%
No HR
6%
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.373 | Barrel: 17.6% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x
Kody Clemens MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.245 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Kerry Carpenter DET30.0%
ISO: 0.288 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zebby Matthews
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Keider Montero
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Kendry Rojas RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Bailey Ober SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Kenley Jansen RP15-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Trey Sweeney SS60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALGREEN ZONE56.6% WR (n=100)
Even pitcher matchup (Montero 4.27 vs Matthews 4.48, both mid-rotation quality) priced fairly by the market; DET -129 implies 56.5% but model is only 54.4%, suggesting market is slightly efficient or correct. No directional edge exists.
Key Factors
- Even pitcher quality: Montero 4.27 ERA vs Matthews 4.48 ERA — only 0.21-run gap, both are C/B- grade arms
- Market pricing ahead of model: DET -129 (56.5%) exceeds model 54.4%, suggesting sharp money respects Montero's command (A- grade) relative to Matthews' C+ command
- Neutral weather and park: 78F, 8.5 mph wind IN (slight suppression), Comerica Park at 1.0 factor — no environmental edge
Risk Factors
- Green zone signals value, but not at this line: Home ML combo is 60.5%, but only when paired with real pitcher advantage; this game lacks it
- Over-reliance on zone data: Zone profitability assumes stable pitcher quality; both Montero and Matthews are mid-range, creating coin-flip probability
NEUTRAL MATCHUP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 54.4%
-0.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-0.5 pts
Total
9.5
+2.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →