MIN vs HOU prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 6.4 - MIN 6.1. HOU is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 12.5 total runs.
HOU
6.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIN
6.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUMIN
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
468
HOU
468
Projected
HOU 6.4 — MIN 6.1
Actual
HOU 4 — MIN 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
FF37%95 mph9% whiff
SL21%87 mph37% whiff
CU14%79 mph33% whiff
Peter Lambert R
HOU
FF31%94 mph17% whiff
CH22%88 mph37% whiff
SL17%86 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
87°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.053 Total: 1.028
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.99ERA
4.47FIP
8.81K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-39.8% EV
+102
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.2% EV
-169
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+27.1% EV
-123
F5 OVER 4.5
+18.8% EV
-130
F5_ML AWAY
-6.3% EV
+110
ML HOME
-5.4% EV
-139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
3.4 runs
39.8% win
HOU F5
3.8 runs
49.5% win
F5 Total
7.2
NRFI
40.2%
YRFI
59.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.48
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.7
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
88%
No HR
3%
Kody Clemens MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 18.7% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Walker HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zebby Matthews
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Peter Lambert
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
Bailey Ober SP15-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU8 injured
Jeremy Pena SSDAY-TO-DAY
Cam Smith RFDAY-TO-DAY
Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B10-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 54.6%
-2.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-2.2 pts
Total
8.5
+27.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →