MIN vs HOU prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 5.9 - MIN 5.5. HOU is favored with a 56.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.4 total runs.
HOU
5.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIN
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUMIN
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.9% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
467
HOU
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joe Ryan R
MIN
FF44%93 mph22% whiff
ST14%80 mph34% whiff
KC12%79 mph26% whiff
Mike Burrows R
HOU
FF28%95 mph11% whiff
CH26%87 mph31% whiff
SL17%90 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
89°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.053 Total: 1.028
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.99ERA
4.47FIP
8.81K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-33.6% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-29.8% EV
-204
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+25.7% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.8% EV
+168
ML AWAY
-9.1% EV
+104
NRFI YRFI
+2.7% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
3.0 runs
39.4% win
HOU F5
3.5 runs
48.4% win
F5 Total
6.5
NRFI
43.5%
YRFI
56.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.34
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.5
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
86%
No HR
3%
Kody Clemens MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Brooks Lee MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.194 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 18.7% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Joe Ryan
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Mike Burrows
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Byron Buxton CFDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
Bailey Ober SP15-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU8 injured
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B10-DAY-IL
Jeremy Pena SS10-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL
Braden Shewmake SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 56.2%
-29.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.8 pts
Total
8.5
+25.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →