MIN vs NYM prediction for April 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 2.7 - MIN 3.1. MIN is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.8 total runs.
NYM
2.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIN
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMMIN
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
135
NYM
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Simeon Woods Richardson R
MIN
FF45%92 mph15% whiff
SL26%86 mph20% whiff
FS25%87 mph16% whiff
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI32%95 mph16% whiff
FF19%96 mph13% whiff
ST16%85 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
46°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.035 Total: 1.023
11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.66ERA
4.34FIP
8.08K/9
4.61BB/9
1.53WHIP
NYM
3.39ERA
3.56FIP
8.39K/9
2.93BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-36.1% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-32.1% EV
-156
F5 UNDER 3.5
+29.3% EV
+114
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-28.4% EV
+130
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+27.1% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
+21.9% EV
+150
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.5 runs
39.4% win
NYM F5
1.4 runs
36.9% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
71.1%
YRFI
28.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.51
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
75%
Over 1.5 HR
42%
No HR
25%
Francisco Alvarez NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.263 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Simeon Woods Richardson | Park: 0.96x
MJ Melendez NYM27.9%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Simeon Woods Richardson | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Mark Vientos NYM19.9%
ISO: 0.118 | Barrel: 7.4% | vs Simeon Woods Richardson | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Simeon Woods Richardson
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Kody Funderburk RPPATERNITY
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Travis Adams RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Laweryson RP15-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Cory Lewis SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Juan Soto RF10-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 2B10-DAY-IL
Kevin Herget RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jared Young LF10-DAY-IL
Joey Gerber RP15-DAY-IL
A.J. Minter RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE43.7% WR (n=5)
27.1% UNDER edge (68.7% model prob) and 19.6% away ML edge both extreme, landing in RED zones. Pitcher quality catastrophic (McLean 2.46 ERA vs Richardson 6.59 ERA is huge), but extreme edges suggest model overconfidence masking weakness.
Key Factors
- MIN away favorite with 19.6% ML edge (50.7% prob). Away ML 15-20% edge = YELLOW/RED zone (43.7% WR, n=5). Tiny sample.
- 27.1% UNDER edge (68.7% prob) lands in RED zone (44.4% WR) — extreme overconfidence
- Nolan McLean (NYM, 2.46 ERA, 31.5% K rate, B-grade, 62.5% score) vs Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN, 6.59 ERA, 12% K rate, D-grade, 29.9% score)
- Pitcher quality mismatch massive (McLean elite, Richardson awful) yet model sees MIN winning 50.7% — suggests quantization error
Risk Factors
- WORST ZONE: RED zone away dog at 15-20% edge = historical loss-maker. 43.7% WR on 5 bets (tiny sample)
- 27.1% UNDER edge = extreme overconfidence. Red zone total unders lose 55.6% of time
- Cold weather (45.5F) supports under logic but doesn't justify 27% edge magnitude
HIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEMODEL OVERCONFIDENCEDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 53.5%
-28.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-28.4 pts
Total
7.5
+27.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →