MIN vs NYM prediction for April 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.2 - MIN 3.0. NYM is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
NYM
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIN
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMMIN
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
135
NYM
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Connor Prielipp L
MIN
Clay Holmes R
NYM
SI43%94 mph9% whiff
ST19%82 mph44% whiff
CH16%89 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
52°F5 mph wind
HR: 0.994 Total: 0.997
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.42ERA
4.11FIP
8.37K/9
4.37BB/9
1.45WHIP
NYM
3.62ERA
3.69FIP
8.88K/9
3.22BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-41.2% EV
-172
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-31.0% EV
-108
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+23.6% EV
-112
F5 UNDER 4.5
+20.4% EV
-132
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-13.3% EV
+142
NRFI NRFI
+9.6% EV
-139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.5 runs
34.8% win
NYM F5
1.8 runs
42.8% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
65.6%
YRFI
34.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.64
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
77%
Over 1.5 HR
43%
No HR
23%
Byron Buxton MIN25.9%
ISO: 0.340 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Clay Holmes | Park: 0.96x
Royce Lewis MIN16.7%
ISO: 0.100 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Clay Holmes | Park: 0.96x
Francisco Alvarez NYM13.8%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Connor Prielipp | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Connor Prielipp
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Clay Holmes
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Kody Funderburk RPPATERNITY
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Travis Adams RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Laweryson RP15-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Cory Lewis SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Jorge Polanco 2B10-DAY-IL
Kevin Herget RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jared Young LF10-DAY-IL
Joey Gerber RP15-DAY-IL
A.J. Minter RP15-DAY-IL
Mike Tauchman RFOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALGREEN ZONE58.6% WR (n=203)
Connor Prielipp (MIN sp) has zero Bayesian ERA data (TBD/unknown pitcher), creating data integrity risk. Model 54.1% NYM despite this unknown variable. Market -158 NYM (61.3% implied) suggests market is accounting for pitcher quality we lack. Skip due to missing critical SP data.
Key Factors
- SP parity unknown: Clay Holmes (NYM) 2.12 ERA solid (C+, B- stuff) vs Prielipp (MIN) UNKNOWN (zero data). Cannot assess matchup.
- Model conservative: 55.9% NYM (barely above 50%) despite Holmes known-solid suggests model is accounting for Prielipp uncertainty.
- Market -158 NYM (61.3% implied) is more aggressive, likely assuming Prielipp is mediocre or fresh (higher-risk pitcher).
- UNDER edge 23.6% (model 65.4%) is massive but TOTAL market disabled. Flag as risk: if TOTAL enabled, could be sharp signal.
- Weather: 51.6F cold, neutral wind. Suppresses runs; model 6.23 is low (matches cold).
Risk Factors
- TBD PITCHER: Prielipp is complete unknown. If he's elite (unlikely for a TBD), model is wrong; if mediocre, market is wrong. Too much uncertainty.
- Model-market gap (-5.4% on win prob): Market is 5.4% more bullish on NYM than model. Suggests market knows Prielipp info we lack, or is overestimating NYM.
- TOTAL edge 23.6% on disabled market is red flag; suggests systematic mispricing we cannot exploit.
TBD PITCHERDATA INTEGRITYTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 54.1%
-13.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-13.3 pts
Total
7.5
+23.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →