MIN vs PIT prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 6.3 - MIN 5.1. PIT is favored with a 61.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 11.4 total runs.
PIT
6.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIN
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITMIN
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.9% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
357
PIT
468
Projected
PIT 6.3 — MIN 5.1
Actual
PIT 6 — MIN 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Taj Bradley R
MIN
FF47%97 mph10% whiff
FS21%91 mph40% whiff
FC21%89 mph37% whiff
Jared Jones R
PIT
Weather Impact
PNC Park
77°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.977 Total: 0.984
thin air, 12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.15ERA
3.92FIP
7.91K/9
4.10BB/9
1.34WHIP
PIT
4.12ERA
4.12FIP
9.29K/9
4.35BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-44.0% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-41.8% EV
-105
F5 OVER 4.5
+25.5% EV
+104
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+22.9% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-16.9% EV
+108
ML AWAY
-15.7% EV
+114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.8 runs
33.8% win
PIT F5
3.8 runs
54.7% win
F5 Total
6.6
NRFI
45.3%
YRFI
54.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.30
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Taj Bradley
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Jared Jones
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Kendry Rojas RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Walker Jenkins CFDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT8 injured
Nick Gonzales 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Konnor Griffin SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 61.9%
+11.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+11.5 pts
Total
8.0
+22.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →