MIN vs PIT prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 6.3 - MIN 5.1. PIT is favored with a 61.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 11.4 total runs.
PIT
6.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIN
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITMIN
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
357
PIT
468
Projected
PIT 6.3 — MIN 5.1
Actual
PIT 6 — MIN 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Taj Bradley R
MIN
FF47%97 mph10% whiff
FS21%91 mph40% whiff
FC21%89 mph37% whiff
Jared Jones R
PIT
Weather Impact
PNC Park
77°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.977 Total: 0.984
thin air, 12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.15ERA
3.92FIP
7.91K/9
4.10BB/9
1.34WHIP
PIT
4.12ERA
4.12FIP
9.29K/9
4.35BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-44.0% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-41.8% EV
-105
F5 OVER 4.5
+25.5% EV
+104
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+22.9% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-16.9% EV
+108
ML AWAY
-15.7% EV
+114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.8 runs
33.8% win
PIT F5
3.8 runs
54.7% win
F5 Total
6.6
NRFI
45.3%
YRFI
54.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.30
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Taj Bradley
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Jared Jones
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Kendry Rojas RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Walker Jenkins CFDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT8 injured
Nick Gonzales 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Konnor Griffin SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 61.9%
+11.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+11.5 pts
Total
8.0
+22.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.