MIN vs PIT prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 5.4 - MIN 4.0. PIT is favored with a 64.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
PIT
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIN
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITMIN
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.6% (2,440 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
246
PIT
357
Projected
PIT 5.4 — MIN 4.0
Actual
PIT 9 — MIN 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
FF42%96 mph14% whiff
SL20%87 mph42% whiff
CU17%79 mph27% whiff
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
FF32%97 mph13% whiff
CU25%85 mph38% whiff
SL24%92 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
72°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.049 Total: 1.026
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.15ERA
3.92FIP
7.91K/9
4.10BB/9
1.34WHIP
PIT
4.12ERA
4.12FIP
9.29K/9
4.35BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-46.5% EV
-161
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-22.7% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
-16.9% EV
+130
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+14.1% EV
-104
ML AWAY
-12.8% EV
+140
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+7.9% EV
+132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.9 runs
29.5% win
PIT F5
3.1 runs
55.8% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
54.2%
YRFI
45.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zebby Matthews
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Braxton Ashcraft
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Bailey Ober SP15-DAY-IL
Kendry Rojas RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Walker Jenkins CFDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT7 injured
Konnor Griffin SS10-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Clevinger RPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Although OVER 7.5 shows 14.1% edge (model 58.2% vs market 41.8%), system has totals disabled. Pitcher edge even (both B-grade, 25.5% vs 23.3% K). Skip per calibration protocol despite edge.
Key Factors
- Minimal pitcher mismatch (Ashcraft B, Matthews B)
- Neutral conditions
- OVER 7.5 edge 14.1% but system disabled
Risk Factors
- Totals disabled
TOTALS DISABLEDMINIMAL PITCHER EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 64.4%
+7.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+7.9 pts
Total
7.5
+14.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →