MIN vs WSH prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 4.2 - MIN 4.4. MIN is favored with a 50.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
WSH
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
MIN
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHMIN
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MINWSH L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
246
WSH
246
Projected
WSH 4.2 — MIN 4.4
Actual
WSH 7 — MIN 5
Pick Results
Austin Martin OVER 0.5 Runs Scoredbatter_runsLOSS-0.50u
James Wood OVER 0.5 Runs Scoredbatter_runsWIN+1.26u
Byron Buxton OVER 0.5 Runs Scoredbatter_runsLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Simeon Woods Richardson R
MIN
FF41%92 mph16% whiff
FS28%87 mph17% whiff
SL26%86 mph16% whiff
Jake Irvin R
WSH
FF29%93 mph22% whiff
SI22%92 mph6% whiff
CU22%77 mph43% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
55°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.018 Total: 1.011
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
5.78ERA
4.78FIP
7.43K/9
4.45BB/9
1.58WHIP
WSH
4.41ERA
4.99FIP
7.59K/9
4.36BB/9
1.43WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.5% EV
-200
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-24.2% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-9.7% EV
-123
ML HOME
-8.4% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-4.1% EV
+164
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+1.2% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.5 runs
43.5% win
WSH F5
2.5 runs
41.8% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
55.4%
YRFI
44.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
9%
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.383 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Jake Irvin
Ryan Jeffers MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.196 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Jake Irvin
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.361 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Simeon Woods Richardson | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Simeon Woods Richardson
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Jake Irvin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Walker Jenkins CFDAY-TO-DAY
Julian Merryweather RPDAY-TO-DAY
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
Matt Canterino SPDAY-TO-DAY
Garrett Acton RP15-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Luis Garcia Jr. 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Max Kranick RP15-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Clayton Beeter RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE45.9% WR (n=140)
Coin-flip matchup; both SPs mediocre (5.32 vs 7.01 ERA); AWAY ML in RED profitability zone (45.9% WR) — market pricing reflects no exploitable gap.
Key Factors
- Both SPs well below league average: Irvin (5.32 ERA, B- stuff 0.466) and SWR (7.01 ERA, C stuff 0.016)
- Irvin K rate 25.3% (better) vs SWR 10.8% (poor) — minor home advantage
- Temperature 55°F cold suppresses runs both ways; total model 8.61 vs market 9.0 justified
- AWAY ML in RED zone (45.9% historical WR on 140 picks) — systematic underperformance
Risk Factors
- MIN bullpen tired after recent usage (need to verify, but visible data shows multiple arms in play)
- WSH lineup youth may create variance; model assumes baseline production
RED ZONEWEAK PITCHER QUALITYAVOID
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 50.7%
-38.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.5 pts
Total
9.0
+1.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →