NYM vs CHC Prediction & Picks — April 17, 2026

NYM vs CHC prediction for April 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 4.5 - NYM 3.2. CHC is favored with a 63.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.

CHC

4.5

Projected Score

VS O/U 10.5

NYM

3.2

Projected Score

Win Probability

63.6%

36.4%

CHCNYM

-1.5

Run Line (CHC)

10.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.7% (566 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

NYM

135

CHC

346

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Kodai Senga R

NYM

FF36%96 mph20% whiff

FO23%83 mph41% whiff

FC21%90 mph25% whiff

Edward Cabrera R

CHC

CH35%93 mph28% whiff

FF22%96 mph18% whiff

SI17%96 mph3% whiff

Weather Impact

Wrigley Field

72°F10 mph wind

HR: 1.042 Total: 1.022

thin air

Bullpen Comparison

NYM

3.02ERA

3.29FIP

8.74K/9

2.80BB/9

1.12WHIP

CHC

4.20ERA

5.18FIP

7.90K/9

3.95BB/9

1.34WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-46.5% EV

-147

TOTAL OVER 10.5

-43.4% EV

-115

TOTAL UNDER 10.5

+38.3% EV

-105

F5 UNDER 5.5

+20.2% EV

-118

F5_ML AWAY

-13.2% EV

+126

ML AWAY

-12.1% EV

+130

First 5 Innings & NRFI

NYM F5

1.7 runs

30.2% win

CHC F5

2.6 runs

52.7% win

F5 Total

4.3

NRFI

63.0%

YRFI

37.0%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.78

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.0

Over 0.5 HR

86%

Over 1.5 HR

58%

No HR

14%

Francisco Alvarez NYM30.0%

ISO: 0.322 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Edward Cabrera | Park: 1.03x

Ian Happ CHC24.5%

ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Kodai Senga | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x

Moisés Ballesteros CHC18.3%

ISO: 0.106 | Barrel: 10.6% | vs Kodai Senga | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Kodai Senga

0.0 K projected

NYM | K/9: 0.0

Edward Cabrera

0.0 K projected

CHC | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

NYM8 injured

Jorge Polanco 2BDAY-TO-DAY

Jared Young LF10-DAY-IL

Juan Soto RF10-DAY-IL

Joey Gerber RP15-DAY-IL

A.J. Minter RP15-DAY-IL

Mike Tauchman RFOUT

+2 more

CHC8 injured

Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL

Porter Hodge RP15-DAY-IL

Ethan Roberts RP15-DAY-IL

Hunter Harvey RP15-DAY-IL

Jaxon Wiggins SPDAY-TO-DAY

Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

Senga's 7.64 ERA can't beat Wrigley thin air

YELLOW ZONE52.2% WR (n=572)

Wrigley's thin air (1443 DA) usually inflates scoring, but Senga (7.64 ERA, 29.7% K-rate) vs Cabrera (1.75 ERA, C stuff) flips the script. Model projects under 10.5 at 59.4%, a 13.4% edge in a GREEN total zone (61.4% WR). Cold winds help suppression — lean under if sharp action surfaces. F5 might be cleaner than full game.

SP mismatch on Bayesian ERA: Cabrera 1.75 ERA vs Senga 7.64 ERA — 5.89-point gap is severe, but Senga's K-rate (29.7% vs Cabrera's 18.2%) suggests volatility edge for away team
Weather multiplier: Wrigley thin air (1.01x on totals, 1.023x HR) + 12 mph tail wind boosts scoring — model adjusts for this but market may underestimate
+ 2 more factors with Premium

WEATHER IMPACTPITCHER MISMATCHTBD PITCHERTOTALS VALUE

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Edge Analysis

Moneyline

CHC 63.6%

+2.2 pts

Run Line

-1.5

+2.2 pts

Total

10.5

+38.3 pts

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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

NYM vs CHC Prediction