NYM vs CHC prediction for April 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 3.5 - NYM 2.0. CHC is favored with a 69.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 5.5 total runs.
CHC
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYM
2.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCNYM
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 90.0% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
024
CHC
245
Pick Results
Ian Happ OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+0.97u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tobias Myers R
NYM
FF44%92 mph14% whiff
SL24%81 mph10% whiff
FS20%80 mph29% whiff
Javier Assad R
CHC
SI41%93 mph11% whiff
FC20%87 mph13% whiff
CH12%86 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
45°F16 mph wind
HR: 0.922 Total: 0.953
15mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.55ERA
3.68FIP
8.09K/9
2.74BB/9
1.19WHIP
CHC
4.00ERA
4.92FIP
7.84K/9
3.77BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-56.5% EV
-179
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-49.3% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+32.7% EV
-115
F5 UNDER 4.5
+32.2% EV
-130
F5_ML AWAY
-26.9% EV
+116
ML AWAY
-24.3% EV
+120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
0.8 runs
21.9% win
CHC F5
1.8 runs
51.9% win
F5 Total
2.6
NRFI
73.7%
YRFI
26.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.47
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.1
Over 0.5 HR
67%
Over 1.5 HR
31%
No HR
33%
Ian Happ CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.318 | Barrel: 17.6% | vs Tobias Myers | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Nico Hoerner CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.167 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Tobias Myers | Park: 1.03x
Moisés Ballesteros CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.137 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Tobias Myers | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tobias Myers
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Javier Assad
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Jorge Polanco 2B10-DAY-IL
Kevin Herget RPDAY-TO-DAY
Juan Soto RF10-DAY-IL
Jared Young LF10-DAY-IL
Joey Gerber RP15-DAY-IL
A.J. Minter RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Cade Horton SP60-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Porter Hodge RP15-DAY-IL
Ethan Roberts RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE52.0% WR (n=599)
NYM @ CHC is a 15-mph COLD WIND game (45.4°F, 15mph in = 0.953 total mult, huge run suppression) combined with THE WORST PITCHER matchup on the slate. Javier Assad (8.75 ERA, C+/B grade command only, 15.3% K-rate) is a DISASTER. Tobias Myers (3.74 ERA, B-/A- grade, 20% K-rate, elite command 0.895) is solid. Assad is the worst starter by ERA on today's slate. Model projects CHC 69.3% win prob. Market prices CHC -142 (58.8% implied). Edge on CHC ML: +13.3%. MORE importantly: UNDER 8.0 with 32.7% edge at 71% model prob. Assad cannot navigate a lineup; every batter will have fastball they can hit. Cold wind (15mph in) suppresses runs massively. NYM also crippled (Soto/Polanco out). Take CHC ML or UNDER 8.0 — both are strong.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch EXTREME: Assad 8.75 ERA (worst on slate, C+/B grade) vs Myers 3.74 ERA (B-/A- grade), K-rate 15.3% vs 20%, command 0.591 vs 0.895 = massive advantage CHC/under
- Cold wind catastrophic: 45.4°F, 15mph in = 0.953 total mult, suppresses runs by ~0.8-1.0 from baseline (largest suppression on slate)
- Injury factor: NYM missing Soto (IL calf) and Polanco (IL wrist) reduces offensive depth
- Model 5.53 total vs market 8.0 = 2.47 run gap; 32.7% edge detected on UNDER (71% prob) — GREEN zone combo
Risk Factors
- Assad could get shelled early; unexpected 3-run inning possible before elite CHC reliever enters
- Wrigley wind direction confirmation needed pre-game (data shows 15mph in, but verify)
- CHC lineup injuries: Cade Horton (IL), Matthew Boyd (IL) affect bullpen depth late
PITCHER MISMATCHCOLD WEATHERTOTALS VALUEGREEN ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 69.3%
+12.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+12.7 pts
Total
8.0
+32.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →