NYM vs CIN prediction for June 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 4.4 - NYM 5.2. NYM is favored with a 54.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
CIN
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINNYM
-1.5
Run Line (CIN)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (2,358 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
357
CIN
246
Projected
CIN 4.4 — NYM 5.2
Actual
CIN 12 — NYM 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tobias Myers R
NYM
FF50%93 mph13% whiff
FS22%80 mph30% whiff
SL16%82 mph12% whiff
Chase Burns R
CIN
FF57%98 mph17% whiff
SL37%91 mph51% whiff
CH6%90 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
74°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.007 Total: 1.002
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.50ERA
3.78FIP
9.01K/9
3.41BB/9
1.20WHIP
CIN
4.62ERA
5.24FIP
8.82K/9
5.81BB/9
1.52WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-25.5% EV
-189
F5_ML HOME
-21.1% EV
-167
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-18.8% EV
+155
F5_ML AWAY
+18.6% EV
+134
ML HOME
-18.0% EV
-135
ML AWAY
+14.2% EV
+116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.8 runs
47.1% win
CIN F5
2.4 runs
39.7% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
49.9%
YRFI
50.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.291 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Chase Burns | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Jared Young NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Chase Burns | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
JJ Bleday CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.357 | Barrel: 17.5% | vs Tobias Myers | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tobias Myers
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Chase Burns
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B60-DAY-IL
Christian Scott SP15-DAY-IL
Mike Baumann RPDAY-TO-DAY
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN8 injured
Elly De La Cruz SS10-DAY-IL
Pierce Johnson RP15-DAY-IL
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE43.5% WR (n=100)
Model projects NYM 52.9% despite Chase Burns being a legitimate ace (2.31 ERA, 30.1% K-rate) at home vs Myers (4.37 ERA)—RED zone away underdog trap with 14.2% edge signals overconfidence.
Key Factors
- Ace vs solid SP: Burns 2.31 ERA (elite 30.1% K-rate) vs Myers 4.37 ERA — 2.06 gap favors CIN home
- RED zone alert: NYM away underdog, 14.2% edge in RED zone (43.5% WR, n=100)
- Market more rational: CIN -135 (57.5%) better reflects pitcher hierarchy than model's 52.9% NYM
- Park inflates slightly (1.08) but elite strikeout arm (Burns) mitigates
Risk Factors
- Away underdog in RED zone with 14.2% edge — historically catastrophic (37.5% WR in 10-15% edge range)
- NYM injury report shows Tyrone Taylor (CF, 10-day IL hip), Francisco Lindor (SS, 10-day IL calf) — lineup impact possible
- Model overweighting NYM lineup relative to Burns' dominance
HIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEMODEL MARKET CONFLICTPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 54.8%
-18.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-18.8 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →