NYM vs COL prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 4.1 - NYM 4.3. NYM is favored with a 50.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
COL
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
NYM
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLNYM
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
COL
246
Projected
COL 4.1 — NYM 4.3
Actual
COL 2 — NYM 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Huascar Brazobán R
NYM
SI47%96 mph25% whiff
CH40%90 mph30% whiff
FF6%96 mph14% whiff
Tomoyuki Sugano R
COL
FF26%92 mph14% whiff
FS23%87 mph32% whiff
FC14%89 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
71°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.103 Total: 1.051
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.61ERA
3.35FIP
10.05K/9
3.17BB/9
1.22WHIP
COL
4.45ERA
4.30FIP
9.17K/9
3.84BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 10.5
-38.5% EV
-122
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.8% EV
-130
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
+32.5% EV
+100
F5 UNDER 5.5
+25.8% EV
+102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-20.5% EV
+108
ML AWAY
-11.8% EV
-145
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.3 runs
43.5% win
COL F5
2.2 runs
40.3% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
54.8%
YRFI
45.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Mark Vientos NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.182 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | Park: 1.18x
Mickey Moniak COL30.0%
ISO: 0.408 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Huascar Brazobán | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Huascar Brazobán
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Tomoyuki Sugano
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Ronny Mauricio SS10-DAY-IL
Jose Rojas 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Nick Burdi RPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Jacques RPDAY-TO-DAY
Joey Gerber RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Jeff Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Feltner SP15-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
Pierson Ohl RP60-DAY-IL
Case Williams SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 50.6%
-32.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.8 pts
Total
10.5
+32.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →