NYM vs COL prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 3.9 - NYM 3.5. COL is favored with a 56.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
COL
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
NYM
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLNYM
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
245
COL
246
Projected
COL 3.9 — NYM 3.5
Actual
COL 5 — NYM 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Freddy Peralta R
NYM
FF52%94 mph22% whiff
CH23%87 mph28% whiff
CU14%80 mph36% whiff
Michael Lorenzen R
COL
CH19%84 mph37% whiff
FF17%94 mph9% whiff
SI17%93 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
37°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.033
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.56ERA
3.26FIP
9.66K/9
2.88BB/9
1.18WHIP
COL
4.35ERA
4.19FIP
9.38K/9
3.76BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-39.6% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-34.7% EV
-108
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+31.6% EV
-106
F5_ML AWAY
-26.2% EV
-172
F5_ML HOME
+25.7% EV
+136
ML HOME
+25.6% EV
+140
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.8 runs
34.6% win
COL F5
2.3 runs
47.5% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
59.8%
YRFI
40.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
53%
No HR
17%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Michael Lorenzen
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Ronny Mauricio SS10-DAY-IL
Jose Rojas 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Nick Burdi RPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Jacques RPDAY-TO-DAY
Joey Gerber RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Jeff Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Feltner SP15-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
Pierson Ohl RP60-DAY-IL
Case Williams SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.7% WR (n=236)
Model projects 7.39 total vs market 9.5 = extreme 31.6% UNDER edge (67.8% model prob). This is driven by: (1) Cold Coors Field (37.1°F, lowest temp on slate) suppressing runs despite park's +15% inflation factor, (2) SP advantage away (Peralta 3.80 ERA, B- vs Lorenzen 6.58 ERA, C+ = 2.78 gap favoring NYM), (3) Cold-weather override: Park multiplier 1.18 (thin air) × weather cold multiplier 0.92 (37°F) ≈ 1.09 true adjusted = massive run suppression. Market fails to account for temperature override of park factor. UNDER 9.5 is actionable despite extreme edge (triggers overconfidence alarm).
Key Factors
- Extreme cold suppression: 37.1°F Coors (lowest temp on slate) overrides park's +15% inflation. True adjusted multiplier ~1.09 (cold × thin air) = net suppression despite high-altitude.
- SP mismatch: Peralta 3.80 ERA (B-) vs Lorenzen 6.58 ERA (C+) = 2.78 gap favoring NYM, typical cold-weather under driver.
- Market Coors bias: Market prices 9.5 (typical Coors total) ignoring 37°F temperature. Historical Coors unders underperform (40-45% WR) due to park reputation bias.
- F5 edge strong: 19% F5 UNDER edge (56.7% model prob) provides secondary confirmation less subject to overconfidence.
- Extreme edge: 31.6% edge is highest on slate. Pure overconfidence trigger. Model could be 15-20 points wrong.
Risk Factors
- EXTREME_EDGE_WARNING (31.6%). Model likely overconfident. Cold weather models carry 2-3 run uncertainty. Actual game could easily hit 8.5-9.0.
- TOTAL market DISABLED (grade D, 49.3% WR). Betting against market-wide total cap violates discipline.
- Coors Field is crapshoot: Despite cold, high altitude creates unpredictable fly ball behavior. Model might miss baseline volatility.
EXTREME EDGE WARNING (31.6%, highest on slate, triggers overconfidence)DISABLED MARKET (TOTAL grade D, 49.3% WR, violates discipline)COLD SUPPRESSION (37°F Coors, overrides park factor)SP MISMATCH (2.78 gap favoring NYM, standard cold setup)F5 SECONDARY VALUE (19% F5 UNDER edge, more reliable)LEAN NOT BET (extreme edge warrants 0.8 unit cap, strong skepticism)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 56.6%
-21.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-21.5 pts
Total
9.5
+31.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →