NYM vs COL prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 5.0 - NYM 5.0. COL is favored with a 51.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 10.0 total runs.
COL
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
NYM
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLNYM
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYMCOL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
357
COL
357
Projected
COL 5.0 — NYM 5.0
Actual
COL 6 — NYM 2
Pick Results
Mickey Moniak OVER 0.5 Runs Scoredbatter_runsLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Christian Scott R
NYM
FF51%96 mph17% whiff
FC21%88 mph10% whiff
ST20%81 mph33% whiff
Jose Quintana L
COL
FF32%90 mph24% whiff
CH20%85 mph39% whiff
SI19%90 mph4% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
67°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.077 Total: 1.037
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.80ERA
3.41FIP
9.93K/9
2.87BB/9
1.23WHIP
COL
4.41ERA
4.26FIP
9.21K/9
3.72BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-27.4% EV
-125
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-20.8% EV
+104
TOTAL OVER 10.5
-18.1% EV
-120
F5_ML AWAY
-15.8% EV
-143
ML AWAY
-15.3% EV
-154
ML HOME
+11.9% EV
+130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.9 runs
41.1% win
COL F5
3.1 runs
45.6% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
49.3%
YRFI
50.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
6%
Tyrone Taylor NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.260 | Barrel: 5.6% | vs Jose Quintana | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Mark Vientos NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Jose Quintana | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.142 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Jose Quintana | Park: 1.18x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Christian Scott
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Jose Quintana
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
A.J. Minter RP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Mauricio SS10-DAY-IL
Jose Rojas 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Nick Burdi RPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Jacques RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
COL8 injured
Jeff Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Feltner SP15-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
Pierson Ohl RP60-DAY-IL
Case Williams SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE54.1% WR (n=140)
Jose Quintana (C-, stuff 0.094 worst on slate) vs Christian Scott (C+, stuff 0.446); COL underdog +129 represents undervalued pitching advantage despite Coors Field +18% run inflation — model edge 11.9% is legitimate on underdog arm talent.
Key Factors
- Quintana stuff (0.094 score) — WORST on entire slate; C- overall grade, poor command (0.301 score)
- Scott stuff (0.446) and overall (0.41) clearly superior to Quintana (0.187 overall, 0.094 stuff)
- Coors Field park factor 1.18 (+18% runs) — applies to BOTH teams but inflates underdog COL lineup (shorter porch favors power hitters)
- Model projects COL at 48.7% despite 66.6°F temp (neutral for Coors) — suggests underdog arm advantage not fully priced
Risk Factors
- Coors park inflation is severe; even with SP advantage, runs can exceed model projections
- COL lineup quality relative to NYM not specified; if NYM bats superior, Coors advantage flips to negative
- 11.9% edge is at calibration threshold; zone YELLOW (54.1% WR) indicates modest historical success
PITCHER MISMATCHUNDERDOG VALUECOORS PARK FACTORAWAY SP ADVANTAGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 51.1%
-27.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-27.4 pts
Total
10.5
+9.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →