FINAL: LAA 4 — NYM 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAA 3.6 - NYM 3.6 (LAA at 52.5% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
LAA
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYM
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAANYM
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
LAA
246
Projected
LAA 3.6 — NYM 3.6
Actual
LAA 4 — NYM 3
Pick Results
LAA MLmlWIN+1.59u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI34%95 mph16% whiff
FF18%96 mph23% whiff
ST16%85 mph23% whiff
Reid Detmers L
LAA
FF43%94 mph17% whiff
SL32%86 mph30% whiff
CH11%83 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
68°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.981 Total: 0.987
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.88ERA
3.41FIP
10.22K/9
3.15BB/9
1.21WHIP
LAA
5.20ERA
5.01FIP
8.63K/9
4.98BB/9
1.43WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-33.4% EV
-152
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-26.6% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-21.8% EV
+126
F5_ML AWAY
-14.3% EV
-132
ML AWAY
-12.1% EV
-127
F5 UNDER 3.5
+10.2% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.7 runs
37.2% win
LAA F5
1.9 runs
42.2% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
65.4%
YRFI
34.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.64
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
14%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Reid Detmers
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Jose Rojas 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Nick Burdi RPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Jacques RPDAY-TO-DAY
Joey Gerber RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Walbert Urena SPDAY-TO-DAY
Alek Manoah SP15-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ben Joyce RP15-DAY-IL
Logan O'Hoppe C10-DAY-IL
Kirby Yates RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE54.1% WR (n=84)
Model projects 52.5% home win (LAA) vs 48.1% market implied (LAA +108 = 48.1%). Marginal 4.4 point gap. Nolan McLean (elite, 2.75 ERA, B+ grade, 33.3% K) vs Reid Detmers (solid, 4.62 ERA, B grade, 25.2% K). McLean advantage clear but LAA home field prices it in. 5.8% edge on LAA ML is below 8% threshold. NEUTRAL zone. SKIP to focus on higher-conviction plays.
Key Factors
- McLean 2.75 ERA vs Detmers 4.62 ERA — 1.87 ERA delta favors NYM pitcher, but game is at LAA home
- Model 5.8% edge on LAA ML is below optimal 8% threshold
- NRFI 6.2% edge is marginal; first-inning scoring suppression mild
Risk Factors
- Edge below actionable threshold — coin-flip games lose to rake
- NYM strong away performance (62.3% WR, 38W-23L) could offset home disadvantage
NEUTRALPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 52.5%
-33.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-33.4 pts
Total
8.0
+6.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →