FINAL: LAA 1 — NYM 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAA 3.1 - NYM 3.0 (LAA at 51.4% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 6.1 total runs.
LAA
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
NYM
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAANYM
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
135
LAA
135
Projected
LAA 3.1 — NYM 3.0
Actual
LAA 1 — NYM 5
Pick Results
LAA MLmlLOSS-2.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Clay Holmes R
NYM
SI49%93 mph7% whiff
ST18%82 mph37% whiff
CH17%89 mph32% whiff
Jack Kochanowicz R
LAA
SI37%96 mph12% whiff
CH26%90 mph38% whiff
FF20%96 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
66°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.981 Total: 0.987
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.69ERA
3.44FIP
9.84K/9
3.23BB/9
1.22WHIP
LAA
5.03ERA
4.90FIP
8.65K/9
4.88BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-53.5% EV
-104
F5 UNDER 4.5
+38.0% EV
+104
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-36.6% EV
-152
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+30.2% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-23.0% EV
+126
NRFI NRFI
+21.4% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.6 runs
39.9% win
LAA F5
1.5 runs
36.5% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
65.9%
YRFI
34.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.62
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
81%
Over 1.5 HR
49%
No HR
19%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.231 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Jack Kochanowicz | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.288 | Barrel: 17.2% | vs Clay Holmes | Park: 0.98x
MJ Melendez NYM18.2%
ISO: 0.162 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Jack Kochanowicz | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Clay Holmes
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Jack Kochanowicz
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Ronny Mauricio SS10-DAY-IL
Jose Rojas 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Nick Burdi RPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Jacques RPDAY-TO-DAY
Joey Gerber RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Yusei Kikuchi SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Johnson SP15-DAY-IL
Walbert Urena SPDAY-TO-DAY
Alek Manoah SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP15-DAY-IL
Logan O'Hoppe C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE51.0% WR (n=221)
UNDER 9.0 at 70.4% model WR, 30.2% edge—MASSIVE. Jack Kochanowicz (3.34 ERA, B- stuff) vs Clay Holmes (1.89 ERA, C+ stuff). Model projects 6.13 runs vs market 9.0. Cold (66.3°F), 7mph wind in adds suppression. Despite 30%+ edge (risky), NRFI at 21.4% edge confirms early-game suppression (61.3% prob).
Key Factors
- Clay Holmes (LAA) 1.89 ERA, 17.6% K, excellent command (0.601)—elite closer-type pitcher
- Jack Kochanowicz (NYM) 3.34 ERA, 17.9% K, below-average command (0.544)—solid but not elite
- Model projects 6.13 runs (extremely low). NRFI at 61.3% (21.4% edge) confirms early-game suppression.
- Cold (66.3°F), 7mph in = mild suppression (0.987x mult). Stacks with pitcher advantage.
Risk Factors
- 30.2% edge is EXTREME historically (33.3% WR for 15%+ edges). But NRFI confirmation mitigates.
- LAA lineup has Juan Soto and Mike Trout—dangerous power. If Holmes gets tired or pulled, run environment could shift.
TOTALS VALUEPITCHER MISMATCHDIRECTION CONFIRMEDHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 51.4%
-36.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-36.6 pts
Total
9.0
+30.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →