NYM vs MIA prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.6 - NYM 4.7. NYM is favored with a 53.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
MIA
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYM
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIANYM
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.9% (2,236 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
357
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 3.6 — NYM 4.7
Actual
MIA 2 — NYM 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tobias Myers R
NYM
FF50%93 mph14% whiff
FS21%80 mph30% whiff
SL17%82 mph15% whiff
Eury Pérez R
MIA
FF49%98 mph19% whiff
SL15%88 mph37% whiff
ST14%83 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
83°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.084 Total: 1.047
11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.00ERA
3.84FIP
9.29K/9
3.76BB/9
1.32WHIP
MIA
3.69ERA
3.60FIP
9.47K/9
4.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-47.7% EV
-192
F5_ML HOME
-29.2% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
+19.8% EV
-106
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-11.0% EV
-104
ML HOME
-10.7% EV
-112
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+10.5% EV
+160
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.9 runs
56.6% win
MIA F5
1.8 runs
29.0% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
55.0%
YRFI
45.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
8%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.308 | Barrel: 14.6% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Mark Vientos NYM25.6%
ISO: 0.155 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 0.93x
A.J. Ewing NYM23.9%
ISO: 0.086 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tobias Myers
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Eury Pérez
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
A.J. Minter RP60-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Mike Tauchman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Leo Jimenez 3B7-DAY IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Kemp Alderman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE45.1% WR (n=164)
NYM away favorite at -104 shows modest 3.4% ML edge (52.7% prob) but sits in RED ZONE (away ML 45.1% WR, n=164); F5_ML edge 19.8% for away team is attractive but F5_ML disabled per calibration (48.8% historical WR). Weather (82.8F, 11mph out, hot/humid Miami) favors run scoring but totals are disabled.
Key Factors
- Pitcher matchup neutral: Eury Perez (B- grade, 0.483 score, 25.2% K-rate, 11.6% BB-rate) vs Tobias Myers (B- grade, 0.492 score, 20.5% K-rate, 4.9% BB-rate) — nearly identical profiles, slight edge Myers on command
- NYM away favorite in RED zone (45.1% WR) — structural headwind despite +104 odds
- F5_ML away edge 19.8% (61.7% prob) is enticing but F5_ML disabled in calibration (48.8% WR, should avoid)
- Miami weather hot/humid (82.8F, 10.6mph out, high HR mult 1.084) favors overs but OVER market is disabled
- Miami at home is historically competent; away favorites underperform
Risk Factors
- 19.8% F5_ML edge is HUGE but F5_ML is disabled market type per calibration — historical failure rate is 48.8% WR
- NYM lineup without key players (multiple IL designations including Lindor calf, Francisco Alvarez knee). Impact on offensive output unknown.
- High heat/humidity might produce runs, but model total (8.34) vs market (8.0) is neutral gap — not significant play
RED ZONEWEATHER IMPACTMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 53.6%
-47.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-47.7 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →