NYM vs MIA prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.9 - NYM 3.3. MIA is favored with a 58.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
MIA
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIANYM
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
135
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 3.9 — NYM 3.3
Actual
MIA 4 — NYM 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Christian Scott R
NYM
FF55%96 mph19% whiff
FC22%89 mph14% whiff
ST18%81 mph37% whiff
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
SI27%96 mph2% whiff
ST25%85 mph38% whiff
FS25%88 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
86°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.089 Total: 1.049
thin air, 11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.90ERA
3.78FIP
9.06K/9
3.66BB/9
1.29WHIP
MIA
3.64ERA
3.52FIP
9.65K/9
4.52BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-46.1% EV
-204
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-18.6% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-12.7% EV
+102
ML AWAY
-11.8% EV
+108
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+10.1% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+7.9% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.7 runs
34.2% win
MIA F5
2.2 runs
47.1% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
60.9%
YRFI
39.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.75
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
15%
Liam Hicks MIA24.9%
ISO: 0.258 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Mark Vientos NYM15.6%
ISO: 0.149 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Tyler Phillips | Park: 0.93x
Connor Norby MIA15.6%
ISO: 0.144 | Barrel: 6.9% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 0.93x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Christian Scott
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Phillips
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Juan Soto LFDAY-TO-DAY
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
A.J. Minter RP60-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Mike Tauchman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Leo Jimenez 3B7-DAY IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Kemp Alderman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
MIA home favored with +10.1% UNDER edge (model 56.5% vs market ~46.5%) — pitching matchup (Phillips 1.3 ERA vs Scott 4.45 ERA) suppresses runs naturally. Weather hot (86.1F, 11.3 mph wind out) inflates but model accounts for it.
Key Factors
- Tyler Phillips (MIA SP) Bayesian ERA: 1.3 (elite), 21.6% K-rate, B- stuff. This is an ACE
- Christian Scott (NYM SP) Bayesian ERA: 4.45 (back-end), 27.8% K-rate but high BB%. Massive mismatch
- Weather HOT (86.1F, 11.3 mph wind out): adds 0.5-1.0 runs naturally — works AGAINST UNDER but model already factored this
- loanDepot park retractable roof (closed for comfort in 86F heat) neutralizes wind boost. Total stays suppressed.
- NYM lineup diminished (Lindor, Alvarez, Soto all missing/limited) — reduces run-scoring impact of hot weather
Risk Factors
- Hot weather and wind blowing out adds 0.5-1.0 runs; model total 7.23 vs market 7.5 leaves only 0.27 edge
- UNDER market is also partially disabled (F grade on under side), limiting confidence in total direction
- MIA has 24.9% HR prob on Hicks, 15.6% on Vientos/Norby — solo shots possible in any inning
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 58.4%
+3.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+3.0 pts
Total
7.5
+10.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →