NYM vs MIA prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.9 - NYM 3.3. MIA is favored with a 58.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
MIA
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIANYM
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (2,282 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
135
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 3.9 — NYM 3.3
Actual
MIA 4 — NYM 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Christian Scott R
NYM
FF55%96 mph19% whiff
FC22%89 mph14% whiff
ST18%81 mph37% whiff
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
SI27%96 mph2% whiff
ST25%85 mph38% whiff
FS25%88 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
86°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.089 Total: 1.049
thin air, 11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.90ERA
3.78FIP
9.06K/9
3.66BB/9
1.29WHIP
MIA
3.64ERA
3.52FIP
9.65K/9
4.52BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-46.1% EV
-204
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-18.6% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-12.7% EV
+102
ML AWAY
-11.8% EV
+108
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+10.1% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+7.9% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.7 runs
34.2% win
MIA F5
2.2 runs
47.1% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
60.9%
YRFI
39.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.75
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
15%
Liam Hicks MIA24.9%
ISO: 0.258 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Mark Vientos NYM15.6%
ISO: 0.149 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Tyler Phillips | Park: 0.93x
Connor Norby MIA15.6%
ISO: 0.144 | Barrel: 6.9% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 0.93x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Christian Scott
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Phillips
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Juan Soto LFDAY-TO-DAY
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
A.J. Minter RP60-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Mike Tauchman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Leo Jimenez 3B7-DAY IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Kemp Alderman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=284)
MIA home favored with +10.1% UNDER edge (model 56.5% vs market ~46.5%) — pitching matchup (Phillips 1.3 ERA vs Scott 4.45 ERA) suppresses runs naturally. Weather hot (86.1F, 11.3 mph wind out) inflates but model accounts for it.
Key Factors
- Tyler Phillips (MIA SP) Bayesian ERA: 1.3 (elite), 21.6% K-rate, B- stuff. This is an ACE
- Christian Scott (NYM SP) Bayesian ERA: 4.45 (back-end), 27.8% K-rate but high BB%. Massive mismatch
- Weather HOT (86.1F, 11.3 mph wind out): adds 0.5-1.0 runs naturally — works AGAINST UNDER but model already factored this
- loanDepot park retractable roof (closed for comfort in 86F heat) neutralizes wind boost. Total stays suppressed.
- NYM lineup diminished (Lindor, Alvarez, Soto all missing/limited) — reduces run-scoring impact of hot weather
Risk Factors
- Hot weather and wind blowing out adds 0.5-1.0 runs; model total 7.23 vs market 7.5 leaves only 0.27 edge
- UNDER market is also partially disabled (F grade on under side), limiting confidence in total direction
- MIA has 24.9% HR prob on Hicks, 15.6% on Vientos/Norby — solo shots possible in any inning
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 58.4%
+3.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+3.0 pts
Total
7.5
+10.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →