NYM vs PHI prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 6.1 - NYM 5.7. PHI is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.8 total runs.
PHI
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
NYM
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHINYM
+1.5
Run Line (PHI)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.7% (2,433 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
468
PHI
468
Projected
PHI 6.1 — NYM 5.7
Actual
PHI 4 — NYM 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Manaea L
NYM
FF37%90 mph18% whiff
ST32%75 mph29% whiff
SI19%90 mph10% whiff
Aaron Nola R
PHI
KC34%78 mph36% whiff
FF25%92 mph14% whiff
SI20%91 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
89°F18 mph wind
HR: 0.948 Total: 0.967
thin air, 18mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-29.0% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-20.3% EV
+102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-11.6% EV
+158
F5_ML AWAY
-9.7% EV
-104
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+9.6% EV
-123
F5 OVER 5.5
+8.4% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
3.2 runs
40.2% win
PHI F5
3.6 runs
48.4% win
F5 Total
6.8
NRFI
45.3%
YRFI
54.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.31
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.5
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
85%
No HR
3%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Aaron Nola | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Jared Young NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Aaron Nola | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.310 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Sean Manaea | Park: 1.02x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sean Manaea
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Aaron Nola
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Christian Arroyo 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Lambert RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ronny Mauricio SS10-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI8 injured
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
Liover Peguero SSDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Bechtold 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=207)
OVER 9.5 shows +9.6% edge and F5 OVER 5.5 +8.4% edge, but 18 mph headwind at Citizens Bank Park may suppress runs more than model accounts for. True edge likely 4-6% after wind adjustment.
Key Factors
- 18 mph headwind (tail -18.0) is MAJOR suppressor — rare atmospheric condition; HR mult 0.948 reflects significant wind impact
- Sean Manaea Bayesian ERA 5.16 suggests weaker form; may struggle vs PHI lineup but wind helps him
- Hot weather (88.6F) partially offsets wind, adding ~0.5 runs normally, but wind cancels that advantage
- F5 OVER 5.5 (+8.4% edge, 56.2% model prob) cleaner than full-game OVER due to early-inning wind variability
- Aaron Nola at home should perform at B- level; market respects this (-120 implied 54.5%)
Risk Factors
- Headwind magnitude (18 mph) rare and model may not have perfect calibration on extreme weather totals
- Manaea ERA 5.16 is elevated; could pitch worse than projected or better (wind helps control)
- Model total 11.76 may be 1-1.5 runs too high after true wind impact
WEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUEMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 54.0%
-29.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.0 pts
Total
9.5
+9.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →