NYM vs PHI prediction for June 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 5.2 - NYM 5.3. PHI is favored with a 50.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.5 total runs.
PHI
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYM
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHINYM
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.1% (2,497 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
357
PHI
357
Projected
PHI 5.2 — NYM 5.3
Actual
PHI 6 — NYM 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
David Peterson L
NYM
SI29%92 mph11% whiff
SL24%86 mph29% whiff
FF23%92 mph19% whiff
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
FF38%95 mph22% whiff
SI17%95 mph5% whiff
FS13%87 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
84°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.997 Total: 0.996
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-31.4% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-25.9% EV
-128
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-21.8% EV
+106
ML AWAY
+21.3% EV
+158
F5_ML AWAY
+19.1% EV
+164
ML HOME
-18.9% EV
-189
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.9 runs
41.8% win
PHI F5
3.0 runs
44.5% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
50.7%
YRFI
49.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
6%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.310 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs David Peterson | Park: 1.02x
Carson Benge NYM22.1%
ISO: 0.121 | Barrel: 6.4% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
David Peterson
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Zack Wheeler
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Christian Scott SP15-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Christian Arroyo 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Lambert RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ronny Mauricio SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI8 injured
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
Liover Peguero SSDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Bechtold 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE45.4% WR (n=116)
Away underdog (NYM 49.4%) has 21.3% ML edge but sits in RED zone (away ML 45.4% WR, n=116) — classic trap. OVER 8.0 has +10.0% edge (60.1% model) with good pitcher matchup (Wheeler 2.17 ERA vs Peterson 6.38 ERA), but market consensus at -188 PHI implies insiders see something model misses.
Key Factors
- Away ML 21.3% edge BUT RED zone (45.4% WR) = money pit historically
- OVER 8.0 has +10% edge (legitimate) but separate from away ML trap
- PHI bullpen solid (4.19 ERA, 1.074 quality) vs NYM bullpen better (3.44 ERA, 1.308 quality) — late-game advantage NYM
Risk Factors
- RED zone away ML is WORST historical zone — market -188 overwhelmingly favors PHI for reason
RED ZONEAWAY ML TRAPTOTALS VALUE CAUTION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 50.6%
-21.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-21.8 pts
Total
8.0
+10.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →