NYM vs SD prediction for June 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 4.0 - NYM 4.2. SD is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
SD
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDNYM
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,155 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
SD
246
Projected
SD 4.0 — NYM 4.2
Actual
SD 0 — NYM 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Christian Scott R
NYM
FF51%96 mph20% whiff
ST22%81 mph30% whiff
FC18%89 mph13% whiff
Michael King R
SD
CH27%86 mph29% whiff
SI26%93 mph16% whiff
FF21%94 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
66°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.994 Total: 0.995
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.54ERA
3.75FIP
9.32K/9
3.77BB/9
1.26WHIP
SD
3.29ERA
3.59FIP
8.22K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.7% EV
-204
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-10.2% EV
-128
F5_ML HOME
-10.1% EV
-130
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.7% EV
+168
ML HOME
-8.2% EV
-127
ML AWAY
+1.3% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.3 runs
41.8% win
SD F5
2.3 runs
41.4% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
57.3%
YRFI
42.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
53%
No HR
17%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.321 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Gavin Sheets SD25.8%
ISO: 0.279 | Barrel: 13.4% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Ty France SD21.8%
ISO: 0.271 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Christian Scott
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Waddell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Adbert Alzolay RPDAY-TO-DAY
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Ramon Laureano LF10-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.2% WR (n=311)
SD neutral-to-slightly-favored matchup: King (B-, 3.43 ERA) vs Scott (B-, 3.21 ERA) — MINIMAL pitcher gap (0.22 runs). Model shows near-perfect market agreement: 50.5% home win prob vs 50.0% market implied (trivial gap). Petco Park (factor 0.9) suppresses runs. Weather neutral (66.4°F, wind IN 4.6 mph). All edges near-zero (ML ±8%, OVER 1.1%). Skip for clearer spots.
Key Factors
- Pitcher gap trivial: King 3.43 vs Scott 3.21 = 0.22 runs (near-identical)
- Petco Park factor 0.9 — suppresses runs 10% below average. Totals edge crushed
- Weather neutral: 66.4°F, wind IN 4.6 mph (minimal impact, -0.1 runs)
- Model-market agreement: Both see 50% parity. No information edge
- Zone WR flat: 50.2% on totals, 55.8% on home ML — no conviction
Risk Factors
- Fair-value game — market is correct
- Juan Soto (NYM) 30% HR prob — can swing game vs King if timely contact
- Both bullpens solid: NYM 3.54 ERA, SD 3.29 ERA — limit damage
NEUTRAL GAMEMINIMAL EDGESPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 50.5%
-8.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.7 pts
Total
7.5
+1.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →