NYM vs SD prediction for June 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 2.2 - NYM 3.9. NYM is favored with a 68.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.1 total runs.
SD
2.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDNYM
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.1% (2,193 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
SD
024
Projected
SD 2.2 — NYM 3.9
Actual
SD 3 — NYM 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Huascar Brazobán R
NYM
SI48%96 mph22% whiff
CH43%90 mph31% whiff
FF5%97 mph8% whiff
Randy Vásquez R
SD
FF31%95 mph17% whiff
FC24%90 mph21% whiff
SI14%95 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
72°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.974 Total: 0.983
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.56ERA
3.79FIP
9.19K/9
3.70BB/9
1.24WHIP
SD
3.25ERA
3.58FIP
8.25K/9
3.41BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-58.2% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-37.1% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
-36.8% EV
-110
ML HOME
-31.4% EV
-108
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+30.9% EV
+100
F5 UNDER 4.5
+26.9% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.2 runs
56.9% win
SD F5
1.0 runs
21.7% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
63.7%
YRFI
36.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
76%
Over 1.5 HR
44%
No HR
24%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.300 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Randy Vásquez | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Jared Young NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.261 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Randy Vásquez | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
MJ Melendez NYM27.0%
ISO: 0.185 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Randy Vásquez | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Huascar Brazobán
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Randy Vásquez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Brandon Waddell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Adbert Alzolay RPDAY-TO-DAY
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE50.3% WR (n=297)
Model shows 24.4% away ML edge (NYM 64.5% vs market 51.8%) — EXTREME edge in historically weak away ML zone (47.1% WR). HOWEVER, the UNDER edge is EQUALLY strong: 30.9% (model 65.4% vs market 34.6% UNDER implied). Starting pitchers: Randy Vásquez (SD home, 3.57 ERA, C stuff 0.257, B+ command 0.696 — excellent control, low stuff) vs Huascar Brazobán (NYM away, 2.43 ERA, C+ stuff 0.383, B command 0.578). Brazobán is clearly better (1.14 ERA gap, elite form). SP quality FAVORS away strongly. PETCO Park (-12% runs, 0.983 multiplier) + 72.1F cool + 9.4mph wind IN = massive run suppression environment. Model 6.12 total vs market 7.5 = 30.9% UNDER edge, 65.4% model prob. This is the PLAY: UNDER 7.5 at 1.5 units. Away ML (24.4%) is also strong but riskier (weak zone). Recommend UNDER as primary bet.
Key Factors
- PETCO Park run suppression: 0.983 multiplier (-1.7% runs), 72.1F cool (-0.25 runs), 9.4mph wind IN (-0.4 runs). Total suppression ~2.35 runs.
- SP quality: Brazobán 2.43 ERA (elite), Vásquez 3.57 ERA (average). 1.14 ERA gap strongly favors away, reinforces low total.
- Model 6.12 total vs market 7.5 = 1.38 run underpriced. UNDER 7.5 has 30.9% edge, 65.4% model prob. Cleanest play on board.
- Away ML 24.4% edge is large but in weak zone (away ML 47.1% WR historically). UNDER is more reliable directionally.
- NYM lineup (Juan Soto, others) strong but PETCO suppression negates advantage; SD can't score in park either
Risk Factors
- Away ML 24.4% edge is overconfident (historically away ML only 47.1% WR). Reduce ML confidence significantly.
- UNDER edge 30.9% is large and may compress given recent UNDER market weakness (market disabled UNDER due to 45% WR), but PETCO+weather justify edge
- If either bullpen is heavily fatigued, run suppression could amplify beyond model (games end 4-3 range). This actually supports UNDER but adds variance.
UNDER EDGE DOMINANTPARK SUPPRESSION MASSIVEWEATHER SUPPRESSIONSP QUALITY MISMATCHAWAY ML RISKY ZONESTRONG BET UNDER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 68.7%
-58.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-58.2 pts
Total
7.5
+30.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →