Who is predicted to win NYM vs SEA on June 1, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, SEA is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is SEA 4.8 - NYM 4.1.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

NYM vs SEA Prediction & Picks — June 1, 2026

NYM vs SEA prediction for June 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.8 - NYM 4.1. SEA is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.9 total runs.

SEA

4.8

Projected Score

VS O/U 7.0

NYM

4.1

Projected Score

Win Probability

58.0%

42.0%

SEANYM

-1.5

Run Line (SEA)

7.0

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (2,300 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

NYM

246

SEA

357

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Austin Warren R

NYM

ST48%85 mph20% whiff

SI22%94 mph12% whiff

CU14%84 mph24% whiff

Emerson Hancock R

SEA

FF38%95 mph23% whiff

SI23%95 mph6% whiff

ST20%77 mph34% whiff

Weather Impact

T-Mobile Park

74°F8 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 1.023 Total: 1.012

neutral

Bullpen Comparison

NYM

3.72ERA

3.62FIP

9.39K/9

3.79BB/9

1.28WHIP

SEA

2.96ERA

3.57FIP

9.16K/9

3.36BB/9

1.32WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-44.5% EV

-208

TOTAL UNDER 7.0

-31.2% EV

-114

ML AWAY

-10.3% EV

+110

RUN_LINE HOME -1.5

+8.2% EV

+172

F5_ML AWAY

-7.9% EV

+106

TOTAL OVER 7.0

+7.5% EV

-106

First 5 Innings & NRFI

NYM F5

2.1 runs

37.2% win

SEA F5

2.6 runs

46.8% win

F5 Total

4.8

NRFI

57.7%

YRFI

42.3%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.85

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

1.9

Over 0.5 HR

84%

Over 1.5 HR

56%

No HR

16%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Austin Warren

0.0 K projected

NYM | K/9: 0.0

Emerson Hancock

0.0 K projected

SEA | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

NYM8 injured

Brandon Waddell RPDAY-TO-DAY

Adbert Alzolay RPDAY-TO-DAY

Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL

Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL

Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL

Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL

+2 more

SEA7 injured

Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL

Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL

Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL

Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY

Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL

Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL

+1 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

Park suppression is too strong — meh

YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=304)

Emerson Hancock (SEA, 24.6% K, B grade) vs Austin Warren (NYM, 27.8% K, B- grade) is a close matchup. Model sees 8.87 runs vs market 7.0 (1.87-run gap, 7.5% edge). But T-Mobile Park has a 0.89 factor — suppresses runs by 11%. That's brutal and typically overrides pitcher edges. Market knows this and priced 7.0 correctly. SEA bullpen (2.96 ERA, elite) reinforces suppression. NYM is below-average offensively (26-33 record). Neither team is explosive. Neutral confidence. If forced to play, lean over, but this is a meh spot with modest edge in a suppressed-park environment.

Pitcher matchup: Hancock (SEA, 24.6% K, B grade) vs Warren (NYM, 27.8% K, B- grade). Neutral-to-slight-edge-Warren. Warren has more strikeouts (typically suppressive to runs).
PARK SUPPRESSION: T-Mobile Park 0.89 factor (11% run suppression). One of the most suppressive parks in MLB. This is a massive structural headwind to overs.
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Edge Analysis

Moneyline

SEA 58.0%

+8.2 pts

Run Line

-1.5

+8.2 pts

Total

7.0

+7.5 pts

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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

NYM vs SEA Prediction