NYM vs SEA prediction for June 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 5.6 - NYM 4.4. SEA is favored with a 62.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
SEA
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEANYM
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,497 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
SEA
468
Projected
SEA 5.6 — NYM 4.4
Actual
SEA 8 — NYM 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
R TBD
NYM
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
FF32%95 mph14% whiff
SL22%86 mph35% whiff
FS16%81 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
82°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.010 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.72ERA
3.62FIP
9.39K/9
3.79BB/9
1.28WHIP
SEA
2.96ERA
3.57FIP
9.16K/9
3.36BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-44.5% EV
-172
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-28.8% EV
-118
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+20.5% EV
-104
F5 OVER 4.5
+14.4% EV
+112
ML AWAY
-11.6% EV
+130
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+7.6% EV
+142
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.5 runs
35.7% win
SEA F5
3.2 runs
50.8% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
53.7%
YRFI
46.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
8%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Waddell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Adbert Alzolay RPDAY-TO-DAY
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Josh Naylor 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE50.1% WR (n=311)
NYM TBD pitcher creates critical data integrity issue. Model projects SEA 62.3% with 20.5% OVER edge, but without knowing NYM starter, cannot assess pitcher mismatch or validate edge confidence. SKIP due to TBD.
Key Factors
- Gilbert quality: 9.1 K/9, B stuff (solid but not elite)
- NYM starter TBD: Cannot validate pitcher matchup quality
- OVER edge 20.5%: Cannot assess validity without NYM pitcher
- Model 20.5% OVER edge in context of TBD = unreliable
Risk Factors
- TBD pitcher creates massive information asymmetry
- High edge (20.5%) with unknown pitcher = classic model overconfidence red flag
- Cannot validate whether edge reflects real mismatch or placeholder data
TBD PITCHERDATA INTEGRITYHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 62.3%
+7.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+7.6 pts
Total
7.5
+20.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →