Who is predicted to win NYM vs SEA on June 3, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, SEA is favored with a 62.0% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is SEA 4.0 - NYM 3.0.

How did NYM vs SEA on June 3, 2026 end?

Final score: SEA 1 - NYM 7. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

NYM vs SEA Prediction & Picks — June 3, 2026

NYM vs SEA prediction for June 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.0 - NYM 3.0. SEA is favored with a 62.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.

SEA

4.0

Projected Score

VS O/U 7.5

NYM

3.0

Projected Score

Win Probability

62.0%

38.0%

SEANYM

-1.5

Run Line (SEA)

7.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (2,514 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

NYM

135

SEA

246

Projected

SEA 4.0 — NYM 3.0

Actual

SEA 1 — NYM 7

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Freddy Peralta R

NYM

FF54%94 mph19% whiff

CH24%87 mph25% whiff

CU12%80 mph31% whiff

George Kirby R

SEA

FF32%97 mph18% whiff

ST28%87 mph26% whiff

SI19%97 mph13% whiff

Weather Impact

T-Mobile Park

63°F10 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 0.961 Total: 0.976

9mph in

Bullpen Comparison

NYM

3.72ERA

3.62FIP

9.39K/9

3.79BB/9

1.28WHIP

SEA

2.96ERA

3.57FIP

9.16K/9

3.36BB/9

1.32WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-49.3% EV

-189

TOTAL OVER 7.5

-16.7% EV

+102

F5_ML AWAY

-15.6% EV

+116

ML AWAY

-13.7% EV

+120

F5 UNDER 3.5

+9.8% EV

+108

TOTAL UNDER 7.5

+6.4% EV

-123

First 5 Innings & NRFI

NYM F5

1.5 runs

30.2% win

SEA F5

2.2 runs

50.2% win

F5 Total

3.7

NRFI

61.4%

YRFI

38.6%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.74

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

1.4

Over 0.5 HR

75%

Over 1.5 HR

41%

No HR

25%

Juan Soto NYM25.6%

ISO: 0.353 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x

Luke Raley SEA21.2%

ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x

Dominic Canzone SEA17.3%

ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 10.5% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Freddy Peralta

0.0 K projected

NYM | K/9: 0.0

George Kirby

0.0 K projected

SEA | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

NYM8 injured

Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL

Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL

Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL

Brandon Waddell RPDAY-TO-DAY

Adbert Alzolay RPDAY-TO-DAY

Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL

+2 more

SEA7 injured

Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL

Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL

Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL

Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY

Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL

Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL

+1 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=12)

Previously analyzed above — UNDER 7.5 with marine layer suppression (0.976 mult) is a lean at 0.75 units. SP matchup balanced (Kirby vs Peralta both B-), but weather edge is real and rare. YELLOW zone but supported by quantifiable environmental advantage.

Key Factors

Marine layer + wind in + cold = -2.4% run suppression (0.976 mult)
SP matchup balanced (Kirby 0.459, Peralta 0.451 — both B-)
NRFI edge 9.4% (59.4% model vs 50% market) — SEA bullpen weak
Market 7.5 is fair but true adjusted total closer to 7.3-7.4

Risk Factors

UNDER zone RED historically (45.7% WR) — structural disadvantage
Sample size small (12 bets in this zone)
If hitters adjust to cold/marine layer, runs could come more easily

WEATHER IMPACTYELLOW ZONENRFI EDGE

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

SEA 62.0%

+5.0 pts

Run Line