NYM vs SF prediction for April 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 4.1 - NYM 5.8. NYM is favored with a 62.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
SF
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
5.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFNYM
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
468
SF
246
Pick Results
David Peterson OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsWIN+0.91u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI28%95 mph16% whiff
ST25%85 mph16% whiff
CU16%80 mph51% whiff
Tyler Mahle R
SF
FF50%92 mph19% whiff
FS28%84 mph22% whiff
FC12%85 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
60°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.968 Total: 0.981
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.37ERA
4.16FIP
9.01K/9
3.08BB/9
1.15WHIP
SF
3.46ERA
3.06FIP
8.34K/9
3.17BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-47.9% EV
-161
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-28.1% EV
-102
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+18.9% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
-18.4% EV
+102
ML HOME
-17.1% EV
+106
ML AWAY
+9.8% EV
-123
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
3.1 runs
52.3% win
SF F5
2.2 runs
31.2% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
59.3%
YRFI
40.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
9%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Mahle
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Mike Tauchman RFOUT
A.J. Minter RP15-DAY-IL
Nate Lavender RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Waddell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Robert Stock RPOUT
+2 more
SF8 injured
Jose Butto RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP15-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
Hayden Birdsong RP60-DAY-IL
Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL
Parks Harber 3BOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE40.7% WR (n=31)
Massive pitcher mismatch (McLean B+, 30.5% K vs Mahle B-, 18.8% K) and extreme OVER edge (18.9%) creates conflict: away-favorite ML in RED zone historically (37-40% WR), and high-edge totals show worst historical performance (33% WR when edge 15-25%). Market may be correctly underpricing Oracle Park's brutal suppression (-12% park factor).
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: McLean (B+, 30.5% K, 3.89 ERA) vs Mahle (B-, 18.8% K, 4.86 ERA) — elite ace tier vs back-end starter.
- Away-favorite zone: NYM ML in RED zone (37% WR combo, 40.7% YELLOW) — structural losing bet historically.
- High-edge OVER (18.9%) falls into worst historical zone (33% WR when edge 15-25%) — model overconfidence likely.
- Oracle Park park factor 0.88 (-12% run suppression) + cold (59.5°F) + wind IN = hardest hitter's environment in MLB.
- Bullpen: SF elite (3.46 ERA) vs NYM mediocre (4.37 ERA) — advantages offset (elite starter for NYM, elite bullpen for SF).
Risk Factors
- Away moneyline favorite is RED zone (37.0% WR on 440 tracked bets) — structural weakness overrides pitcher edge.
- High-edge total (18.9%) shows 33% WR historically — market likely correct despite model edge.
- Model adjustment for Oracle's park factor and weather may be incomplete; market aggressive underpricing may reflect ground truth.
RED ZONEPITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNINGPARK FACTORWEATHER IMPACTMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 62.5%
-47.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-47.9 pts
Total
7.5
+18.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →