FINAL: STL 3 — NYM 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 4.7 - NYM 6.4 (NYM at 61.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.1 total runs.
STL
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
6.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLNYM
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYMSTL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
468
STL
357
Projected
STL 4.7 — NYM 6.4
Actual
STL 3 — NYM 0
Pick Results
NYM @ STL NRFInrfiWIN+0.83u
NYM -1.5run_lineLOSS-1.00u
NYM MLmlLOSS-1.00u
F5 OVER 4.5f5_totalLOSS-1.00u
NYM F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kodai Senga R
NYM
FF30%95 mph18% whiff
FO28%82 mph40% whiff
FC20%90 mph14% whiff
Andre Pallante R
STL
FF44%94 mph12% whiff
SL28%87 mph32% whiff
KC14%78 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
86°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.994 Total: 0.993
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.26ERA
4.11FIP
9.00K/9
2.95BB/9
1.13WHIP
STL
6.32ERA
4.24FIP
9.29K/9
4.73BB/9
1.64WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-43.5% EV
-132
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-31.2% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+24.5% EV
-110
ML HOME
-8.4% EV
+128
F5_ML AWAY
-5.2% EV
-167
F5_ML HOME
-2.2% EV
+132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.8 runs
49.1% win
STL F5
2.2 runs
35.3% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
51.7%
YRFI
48.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
83%
No HR
4%
Francisco Lindor NYM31.3%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM23.2%
ISO: 0.296 | Barrel: 3.0% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Luis Robert Jr. NYM19.8%
ISO: 0.118 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kodai Senga
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Mike Tauchman RFOUT
A.J. Minter RP15-DAY-IL
Nate Lavender RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Waddell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Robert Stock RPOUT
+2 more
STL7 injured
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 61.1%
-43.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-43.5 pts
Total
8.5
+24.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →