NYM vs STL prediction for April 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.6 - NYM 4.6. NYM is favored with a 57.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
STL
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLNYM
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYMSTL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
357
STL
246
Pick Results
Freddy Peralta OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsWIN+0.91u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Freddy Peralta R
NYM
FF51%95 mph20% whiff
CH20%89 mph32% whiff
CU15%79 mph33% whiff
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
FF29%94 mph10% whiff
SL21%86 mph30% whiff
CU15%78 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
62°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.044 Total: 1.024
5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.65ERA
4.42FIP
9.03K/9
3.14BB/9
1.17WHIP
STL
5.82ERA
4.09FIP
9.12K/9
4.62BB/9
1.57WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-43.7% EV
-130
F5 UNDER 4.5
+23.7% EV
-141
NRFI NRFI
+15.0% EV
-132
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-14.5% EV
+108
F5_ML AWAY
-10.8% EV
-167
F5_ML HOME
+6.5% EV
+134
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.6 runs
40.9% win
STL F5
1.4 runs
35.5% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
68.2%
YRFI
31.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.54
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
14%
Francisco Lindor NYM19.5%
ISO: 0.130 | Barrel: 10.5% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jorge Polanco NYM16.1%
ISO: 0.238 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM15.2%
ISO: 0.202 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Mike Tauchman RFOUT
A.J. Minter RP15-DAY-IL
Nate Lavender RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Waddell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Robert Stock RPOUT
+2 more
STL7 injured
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE8.9% WR (n=2551)
Weak directional signal (model 43% home STL vs market 42% implied = 1.7% edge, pick-em essentially). Away ML RED zone (8.9% WR) and F5 UNDER edge (23.7%, 72.4% prob) suggests pitchers dominate — lean niche markets instead of directionals.
Key Factors
- Near-pick-em: Model 43% STL vs market 42% = coin flip. Edge is minimal (1.7%).
- Away ML trap: NYM +163 in RED zone (8.9% WR) — avoid despite slight model favor
- F5 UNDER edge (23.7%, 72.4% prob) is legitimate — Liberatore (B-, 0.455 grade) and Peralta (B, 0.54 grade) both solid starters with elite early-inning performance
Risk Factors
- Minimal directional edge — variance dominates
- F5 UNDER edge (23.7%) is actionable but not exceptional
NEUTRAL MATCHUPRED ZONE AWAYF5 VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 57.0%
-43.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-43.7 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →